Ten year Treasury yield fell with the FOMC announcement, as CME contracts indicated a lower trajectory:
Judy Shelton: “Not that there’s anything wrong…”
From NY Sun (4 Dec) via the Independent Institute:
Real Wages
November CPI: Headline, Core, Supercore, Trimmed, Median, and Instantaneous
Instantaneous below y/y:
Non-Inflation Release Items: Oil, Urals, Gas Prices, Inflation Expectations, China Deflation
Oil prices, Urals vs. Brent, gasoline prices weekly thru yesterday, one-year-ahead y/y inflation forecasts, and China in deflation (again).
The Inflation Surge Forecasted (Or Not)
Time for a retrospective on how the various surveys are doing on forecasting year-on-year CPI inflation.
Michigan Sentiment (Prelim) Surprises
on the upside. But the disjuncture between (inverted) misery and sentiment (and confidence) continues.
Business Cycle Indicators with November Employment
With nonfarm payroll employment in November released (+199K vs. +180K consensus), we have the following picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC (plus monthly GDP). The employment series below incorporates the preliminary benchmark revision.
“Real wages have been stagnating”
That’s a quote from reader JohnH. I think whether this statement is true depends on wage measure, deflator.
Guest Contribution: “Do not freak out about the Jobs-Workers Gap (or the Sahm Rule)”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.