Economic growth slightly below trend.
Fed funds vs. Spreads in Recession Prediction
Reader Bruce Hall notes the correlation between Fed funds rate peaks and recessions, as a counterpoint to my use of spread inversions.
Other Metrics for Evaluating Recession Onset and the “Technical Recession” of 2022H1
Or, Why We Don’t Use GDP Alone to Determine Business Cycle Dates. First, consider our various measures of output.
Not “Exogenous versus Endogenous Business Cycles: How the Pandemic differed from an Ordinary Recession.”
Reader Steven Kopits (who doesn’t know what a confidence interval is formally defined as, and thought no more than 300-400 people died in Hurricane Maria) urges me to write a paper with the above title.
Recessions Defined and (Maybe) Predicted
Since most of my lecture notes have migrated behind a gate (software called Canvas, used on many campuses), I thought I would share some teaching material that some Econbrowser readers might find of interest.
Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce: “Optimism is falling” in Wisconsin
From the Badger Institute:
The Dollar’s Role as an International Currency
Some recent items: papers by Chinn, Frankel and Ito and Kamin and Sobel; talk by Mark Copelovitch on Tuesday.
On GDP, from the Country That Brought You the Term “Potemkin Village”
Exchange Rate Pass Through into Import Prices, CPI
Justin Ho of Marketplace discussed the implications of the import/export price release Thursday. My view was that pass through into import prices was low in the short run, and even in the long run was not very large, while pass through into the broader price index was unlikely to be large. Not sure I was alone in this view, but here’re my thoughts.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-February
Industrial production comes in under consensus (-0.1% vs +0.2%). Here’s a picture of the key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC.