Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
FT-Booth September Survey
The recession’s start is further delayed as forecasted growth continues. FT article and survey results: q4/q4 growth at 2% [1.3%, 2.5% 90%ile range].
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-September
Industrial production suprised on the upside on Friday, 0.4% vs. 0.1% Bloomberg consensus. Here’s the picture of key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, plus monthly GDP.
Conference: “Uncertainty, Economic Activity, and Forecasting in a Changing Environment”
Sept 21-22, at the University of Padua, organized by International Institute of Forecasters, University of Padua, American University, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, and IMF.
Nowcasts and Forecasts – Mid-September
GDPNow Q3 revised slightly down (4.9% SAAR), GS about the same (3.2%).
Inflation in August
Month-on-month CPI headline (core) at (0.1 ppt above) Bloomberg consensus. Month-on-month PPI 0.3 ppts above consensus of 0.4 ppts. Y/Y core CPI continues to decline, while instantaneous core inflation is flat.
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Oil Price Forecast
Peak price 2023Q4 at $87.7/bbl (WTI), $92.7/bbl (Brent). WTI forecast below:
Official and Supplemental Poverty Rates, through 2022
The Bureau of the Census has just released numbers for Official Poverty Rate, as well as the Supplemental (the latter takes into account taxes and transfers, and is more relevant for thinking about the actual welfare of individuals).
Urals Discount to Brent $16.3
From TradingEconomics, accessed just now:
How Much Have (Ex Ante) Real Rates Risen?
Ten year Treasurys and Fed funds: