Here’s a picture of the RMB’s role as a reserve and vehicle currency, from an ongoing project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito, where we examine the determinants of individual central bank reserve holdings.
What’s the Actual Strength of the Labor Market? CPS vs CES vs ADP vs ISM
Some commentators have focused on the sharp declines in civilian employment as well as the ISM services employment diffusion index as signaling greater weakness than suggested by the establishment survey.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP growth surprises on the upside (see discussion here), but combined with downward revisions in October and November, we’re just at about the consensus level. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Six Measures of NFP Employment
NFP growth beats Bloomberg consensus by 46K (private NFP by 36K). Looking at several measures of NFP (total, private) suggests continued growth.
Monthly GDP Instantaneous Inflation vs. Core PCE
GDP at 1.5%, PCE at 1.8%.
Still Waiting for the Recession, Weekly Data through 12/30
Through the year’s end, Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Is Velocity Stable? Part MXXVI
Courtesy of CFS, here is M4 Divisia velocity (rescaled to 1967Q1=1):
Business Cycle Indicators at the Start of 2024
November monthly GDP is reported by S&P Global Market Insights, up 0.2 ppts, 2.6% annualized. Here’s the picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus monthly GDP and GDPNow.
Deviation of Instantaneous Inflation from Target
For CPI, CPI core, PCE deflator, PCE core deflator:
Gasoline Prices thru 1/3 (updated – nominal and real)
From GasBuddy: