Taking place on January 16th in Rotterdam, this is the second part of the symposium at the Erasmus School of Economics & Rotterdam School of Management on this topic, organized by Mary Pieterse-Bloem and Sylvester Eijffinger. The first part took place last July.
Consumer Prices
Show differing trajectories, depending on coverage, construction.
Weekly Measures of Growth, into the New Year
WEI accelerates, while WECI decelerates.
Inflation in December: Instantaneous, Core, Supercore, Services supercore, Trimmed, Median
From the December release with headline and core slightly above Bloomberg consensus.
FX Reserve Holdings – 50 Years of Data
And 30 years of turnover data. Currently doing regressions on data on reserve bank holdings, in a project with Jeffrey Frankel and Hiro Ito. In terms of aggregates, we have 50 years of estimates (about 25 years of actual data, and yet fewer years on (selected) individual central bank data)
History, According to Some
In commenting on this post comparing the post-Great Influenza and post-Covid period, Mr. Kopits asserts:
Inflation Nowcasts and Expectations
NY Fed median expected y/y CPI inflation at 3%. Nowcast for core y/y at 3.9%.
Is the Inflation Experience of 2021-23 Like that of Post-Great-Influenza (1918-19)?
Reader Steven Kopits, commenting on inflation now vs. Korean war post:
Are We in Recession? The Sahm Rule Now & 2007
Here’s 2007-08:
Transitory Now vs. 71 Years ago
Follow up on this post from two and a half years ago: