Forecasts of recession vary with indicators (term spread, foreign term spreads, debt-service ratios). Forecasts of economic activity — as measured by industrial produciton — also differ by predictor.
Boloori & Saghafian, “Health and Economic Impacts of Lockdown Policies in the Early Stage of COVID-19 in the United States”
From the paper published in Service Science (2023), Alireza Boloori (University of Washington-Tacoma), and Soroush Saghafian (Harvard):
Ode on a Bruce Hall Link
This is a reprint of a post from 2020 entitled “The Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year”, motivated by Mr. Bruce Hall‘s urging that we look at a Judith Curry link.
Jackboots in Popular Discourse, or “Where did we really see (govt) jackboots?”
In defending the Kudlow alternative math calculation of net job gains in first 30 months of the Trump and Biden administrations, Mr. Bruce Hall writes:
Some Dubious Coincident Indicators of Recession, Again: VMT, gasoline supplied, EPU vs Heavy Truck Sates and Sahm Rule
Reader Steven Kopits, who as recently as a couple weeks ago argued strenuously that a recession occurred in 2022H1, writes of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index graph shown in this post:
Almost Half a Century of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index
It seems a lot less uncertain since 2021M01.
Scavino (or Kudlow) Strike Again: Disinformation Edition
I saw this screenshot of a post from Dan Scavino, former Deputy Chief of Staff for Communications in the Trump White House, and former caddie for a party at the Trump National Golf Club Westchester (at that time, Briar Hall Country Club), and thought “those numbers don’t look right”.
Urals vs. Brent, pre- and post-Cap
The $60 price cap on Russian crude oil was effective 5 December 2022. Here’s a figure of Urals vs. Brent over the past 5 years.
The Debt-Service Ratio and Estimated Recession Probability
Or, why I still think a recession is possible at 2024H1.
Guest Contribution: “Naomi Klein’s Brand”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.