The Q4 Survey of Professional Forecasters was released Monday. Accelerated growth is forecast, no yield curve dis-inversion, and triggering of the Sahm rule.
CPI Inflation in October
Headline CPI flat (below +0.1% consensus), and core CPI inflation at 0.2% (below +0.3% consensus). Here are some pictures of central tendency, trend:
Taiwan Straits Balance of Forces, 2023
From DoD’s 2023 report on PRC’s military and security developments.
Growth Nowcasts for Q4
Atlanta Fed, NY Fed, and St. Louis Fed are for 2.1%, 2.51%, and 1.9%, SAAR respectively.
ShadowStats Online No More
So the world sometimes gets better. ShadowStats reports May CPI y/y inflation at above 7.5%.
Some Hate Crimes, over Time
EIA Short Term Energy Outlook Forecast for Oil, and the Impact of Sanctions
As reported yesterday:
Alternative Estimates of Chinese Q3 GDP Growth
The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel China Cyclical Activity Tracker (CCAT) indicates Q3 growth 0.26 standard deviation below trend.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Approaches the End of the Rate Hiking Cycle”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Associate Instructional Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Euro Area Treading Water
EuroCoin in October indicates quarterly growth rate of -0.67 (q/q). The Q3 flash estimate for Euro Area GDP was -0.1%.