From PredictIt, 4:30pm ET: Republican/Democratic win probabilities back to where they were the day before the debate.
MacIver Institute: “The Real Wisconsin Economy”
Michael Lucas comments on July 1st, painting a grim picture of Wisconsin employment. For comparison, here are some other aggregate numbers, including the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, released today.
CBO: Budgetary and GDP Implications of the Immigration Surge
From CBO report released yesterday.
Instantaneous Core Inflation
Four out of five measures down:
DJT (Trump Media and Technology Group/Nasdaq) As Predictor of Electoral Prospects
Reader pgl points out the recent heightened correlation between DJT (Nasdaq ticker) and Trump’s electoral fortunes.
News and Sentiment
A snapshot as of July:
“Where’s the Slowdown”
Torsten Slok (Apollo) asks that question today. He summarizes:
Real Wages Rising in Wisconsin
For all private workers, as well as production and nonsupervisory:
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators
Most recent forecasts indicate no recession, Q2 nowcasts raised (GDPNow, NY Fed), weekly indicators (Lewis, Mertens, Stock; Baumeister, Leiva-Leon, Sims) growth rates rising, and both NBER BCDC indicators as well as alternative indicators showing positive growth.
Can One Have a Recession Start When Real Household Wealth Is Rising?
Torsten Slok presents this graph, and writes “The bottom line is that the tailwind to consumer spending for homeowners and equity owners is significant, in particular when combined with record-high cash flows from fixed income.”