And what’s up with the University of Michigan survey measure?
Under Pressure
Urals and Brent, as of today:
Gasoline Prices, Weekly thru Nov 20
CFNAI, WEI, WECI, etc.
From Chicago Fed today:
Price Level for the Carnivore’s Breakfast/Commute
In one picture. Prices of bacon, eggs, coffee lower than a year ago October, and gasoline lower than a year ago week ending November 13 (all normalized to July 1983=100).
Guest Contribution: “Does the Fed Deserve Credit for the Disinflation?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
GDP Q4 Nowcasts of November 17th
Lots of agreement around 2% SAAR, with NY Fed at 2.45%. Here’s a graphic depiction of the implications for the level of GDP.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-November
Industrial production is out, -0.6% m/m vs. consensus -0.3%. Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with SPGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP:
Instantaneous Inflation in October
Core PPI flat, vs. +0.3% m/m consensus. Here’re instaneous core CPI and PPI inflation (per Eeckhout):
CRFB at TGTCPL (at UW Madison)
Mike Murphy of the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget gave a presentation at UW’s Tommy G.Thomson Center for Public Leadership, yesterday. I couldn’t attend, but the video is here.
CRFB has handy tool for gaming out modifications to current law to see the impact on the deficit and debt (w/o dynamic scoring). It’s so nifty, in fact, I assigned it to my undergrad public affairs course.