From Reuters:
June 30 (Reuters) – The Texas power grid comfortably met record demand during this week’s heat wave with abundant power supply from wind and solar plants, data from the grid operator showed.
Business Cycle Indicators at June’s End
With today’s spending and income release, we have this picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (consumption, income, sales), along with monthly GDP. Atlanta Fed has also released a new nowcast of GDP.
Real Defense Consumption and Investment, 1960-2023Q1
“The Predictive Power of the Yield Curve, Factors and Foreign Interest Rates for Economic Activity across Countries”
Presentation of paper by coauthor Laurent Ferrara and myself, today at International Symposium on Forecasting 2023…
Does the Fed Care about What’s Going On in the Rest of the World?
Ferrara and De Roux actually pose the question more tactfully, in their paper (Capturing international influences in U.S. monetary policy through a NLP approach) presented at the ISF meetings here in Charlottesville. They look to see if in the FOMC minutes, international economic issues are mentioned in a way that, when converted to an index, shows up as statistically significant in a Taylor equation, and provide the answer “yes”.
Inflation across Some Countries
The debate over causes of the inflation surprise in the US is dominated by focus on the fiscal policy and late tightening, among other things. I think it’s of interest to note (again!) that the spike in inflation was not US-specific. Here are two graphs I presented in today’s lecture in the ISF.
Recession Probabilities based on Multiple Financial Measures
Assume no recession in US through February 2023. What do term and credit spreads, financial conditions index, debt-service ratios predict at the 12 month horizon?
Two Data Sets and Some Papers
For use in ISF 2023 course on “Modeling & Forecasting the International Dimensions”.
The Term Spread, 1970-2023M06
For reference:
Fix the National Debt (Without a Magic Wand)
A simulation from the Center for a Responsible Federal Budget.