As reported yesterday:
Alternative Estimates of Chinese Q3 GDP Growth
The Fernald-Hsu-Spiegel China Cyclical Activity Tracker (CCAT) indicates Q3 growth 0.26 standard deviation below trend.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed Approaches the End of the Rate Hiking Cycle”
Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, Professor and Associate Instructional Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Euro Area Treading Water
EuroCoin in October indicates quarterly growth rate of -0.67 (q/q). The Q3 flash estimate for Euro Area GDP was -0.1%.
The Household Employment Series Turns Down
Does this mean we should be expecting the recession, in next month’s or month after’s data? Maybe, maybe not.
Weekly Macro Indicators, through 10/28
Year-on-Year growth is accelerating modestly, according to the WEI.
Risk and Uncertainty, Market and Geopolitical
One way to visualize:
News
Interest rates down:
Real Wage Growth – Mean and Median
With the labor market release, we have a new read on real wage growth.
The October Employment Report and Business Cycle Indicators at November’s Start [updated]
October NFP employment came in at 150K (below consensus 180K), private NFP at 99K (vs 158K consensus). Here’s the picture of business cycle indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC, along with S&PGMI’s (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP: