Don’t pay too much attention to the headline change in employment.
Mortgage Spreads
Productivity and Costs in Q1
Productivity growth underperforms (-2.7% vs. -1.8% Bloomberg consensus, q/q AR), while unit labor costs surprises on the upside (+6.3% vs. +5.5% consensus, 3.3% previous).
Thirty Year Mortgage-Treasury Spread
From FRED, a maturity matched spread (as well as 30 yr -10 yr Trsy).
ADP Private NFP Growth Upside Surprise
ADP private nonfarm surprises on upside, 296 vs 148 thousands. Using the first differences regression in this post to nowcast BLS private NFP, what does the picture look like?
Market on Debt Default Risk
Higher (a lot) than 2011.
Fed Funds Trajectory as Viewed by the Market
According to the CME, peak Fed funds will be achieved tomorrow. So… “25 and done”…
The “Unexpected Compression”
of real wages. Or as the FT article summarizes it, “America’s lowest-earning workers are enjoying higher wage growth than top earners, after taking into account the effects of the recent bout of high inflation.” From Autor, Dube and McGraw (2023).
Mass Shooting Fatalities This Year Are Not So Bad If You Exclude “Illegal Immigrants” (read subhumans)
As defined by Governor Abbott:
Business Cycle Indicators on May Day
Monthly GDP from S&P Global Market Insights is up 0.3% in March (3.9% annualized), final sales up 6.3% (annualized). This follows on the heels of Thursday’s announcement that nominal personal income and nominal personal spending exceeded consensus by 0.1 ppts m/m. Here is a picture of the key series followed by NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, augmented by monthly GDP (where the top two are real personal income excluding current transfers and nonfarm payroll employment).