Using the correlation between log first differences for BLS nonfarm payroll employment and ADP, I get the following prediction or “nowcast” for the BLS number to be released tomorrow:
Guest Contribution: “Inflation in the euro area: A view from the price level”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Director of the International Institute of Forecasters).
Coincident Index, Monthly GDP, and GDP+
The divergence between performance recorded by primarily labor market indicators (in the coincident index for February released today) and output based indicators persists.
Business Cycle Indicators as of April’s Start
We’ll see if it’s the cruelest month. For now, monthly GDP continues to grow in February, albeit slowly (0.2% m/m) while January growth was revised up.
Oil Prices, Fed Funds Path Up
Spreads, Breakevens, and Risk/Uncertainty as of End-March
Buffeted by SVB, income and spending, and PCE releases.
“(Why) Is The Dollar Still King?”
“The Future of the International Monetary System,” a talk by Mark Sobel, former Treasury Deputy Assistant Secretary, Executive Director at the IMF, current US Chair next Tuesday (4/4), at H.F. DeLuca Forum (“Discovery Building”), 330 N. Orchard Street. Co-sponsored by the Center for European Studies and the La Follette School of Public Affairs.
A Statistical Analysis of Implications of Using the “China Virus” Phrase
Trump used it. A reader wrote “A China virus is not racist, it’s placist.” My view is that since there was already a widely known term for the virus, it was unnecessary to resort to a made up moniker. Han, Riddell and Piquero (2023) examines what happened in the aftermath of the popularization of the term.
Wisconsin GDP in 2022
Wisconsin GDP growth slackened in 2022Q2-Q3, lagging the national deceleration.
PCE Inflation for February
Month-on-month PCE inflation was 0.2% below consensus (core 0.1% below).