The recession is (probably) not here yet (nor was it likely here earlier this year), employment likely continued to grow, and real wages are on average higher than they were before the pandemic. First, key business cycle indicators followed by the NBER BCDC continue uptrend in October, with exception of the civilian employment series based on the household series.
Nowcasting the 2022H1 or 2022H2 Recession
Two of the methodologies discussed in the post on recent nowcasting developments provide insights into the state of the economy.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of November
and on the eve of the October employment report. With monthly GDP on Tuesday, and consumption and income last week, we have the following picture of some key series followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (NBER BCDC):
Hubbert’s Peak and Technology
What assumptions were made?
On the Eve of November FOMC
Expected economic activity, medium term market based inflation expectations, and risk/uncertainty measures.
Guest Contribution: “Workshop on Macro Nowcasting: New tools”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School and Board Member of the International Institute of Forecasters).
Balance of Forces, Kherson Oblast on 31 October 2022
As of 23:00 hrs (GMT+2) on 10/31 (Militaryland.net):
Natural Gas and LNG Exports vs. Goods Exports
Statistics through 2022Q2 – rapid growth in natural gas exports but from small base. LNG exports contribution to change in goods exports quantitatively trivial.
Guest Contribution: “The Fed’s swap lines: Narrow circle, broad effect?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California).