Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-October 2022
Industrial and manufacturing production both at 0.4% m/m growth, above consensus (0.1% and 0.2%, respectively) in September, showing resumed growth. This is the picture of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, plus IHS-Markit monthly GDP.
How Much Was the Expanded Russian Invasion of Ukraine Anticipated?
Answer: Not much. This point is critical in assessing how appropriate conditional forecasts of inflation were, especially those pertaining to 2022.
Weekly Macroeconomic Activity thru 10/8
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.
Why Did Russia Expand Its Invasion of Ukraine?
According to Senator Ron Johnson, this is the reason (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, March7, 2022):
Global Land Sea Temperature
From NOAA :
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2022: “Countering the Cost of Living Crisis”
Guest Contribution: “Gauging Recessions with the Jobs-Worker Gap – Updated”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Paweł Skrzypczyński, economist at the National Bank of Poland. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the National Bank of Poland.
Ron Johnson on Climate Change: “Can you really do anything about it?”
That’s the senator on the climate change issue, in tonight’s Wisconsin senatorial candidate debate. For him, it’s “not solvable.”
I’ve never heard him say it, but the logical conclusion must be that he’s awaitin’ for the Rapture, so no need to worry (at least for those who will be moving on).
Weekly Macro Indicators through 10/1
As measured by NY Fed WEI, OECD Weekly Tracker, and Baumeister, Leiva-Leon and Sims WECI.