Just out, my paper with Hiro Ito, “Requiem for ‘Blame It on Beijing'” [link thru Nov 28] (final version submitted on December 25, 2019):
Business Cycle Indicators with NFP
While there was a big downside NFP surprise (194K vs. Bloomberg consensus of 500K), the overall picture is not much altered:
Long Term Market-Based Inflation Expectations
Still averaging around 1.7%, for the next five years.
One Year Ahead CPI Inflation Expectations
The gap between household expectations and economists forecasts is widening [updated 3:30pm]
Valuation Effects on NIIP and Net Primary Income
The gap between the market valuation of the net international investment position (NIIP) and the cumulative current account has waxed and waned over the years (see the discussion in this post). Some of this effect is due to the dollar’s value. Does the same hold true for net primary income (investment and wage income)?
The 10 year-3 month Treasury Spread over 75 Years
For the past 50 years, inversion has preceded recession.
Forty Years of Real Treasury Rates
Preparing graphs for my course, I generated this graph which shows the trend decline in real (risk free) rates. Is there any reason to believe in an imminent reversal of the trend?
Business Cycle Indicators as of the Beginning of October
Consumption rises as personal income ex-transfers fall in August, and monthly GDP rebounds somewhat. Consumption remains 2.8% above 2020M02 levels (the latest NBER peak). Here’s the picture of the macroeconomy (for some key indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC).
Wisconsin-Minnesota GDP Growth Compared
State level quarterly GDP for Q2 was just released today by BEA. Since people are still debating the efficacy of the Scott Walker economic policies in spurring growth (see e.g., here), I thought it of interest to compare the broadest measure of economic activity — real GDP — between Wisconsin and its neighbor, Minnesota. Shown below is the 4 quarter growth rate differential between Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Measured Inflation in August
A CNN headline notes “A key measure of inflation surged to a new 30-year high”, with that key inflation measure being the year-on-year (y/y) personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, very similar to a headline a month ago. But in any case, by focusing on the y/y rate, they missed the main message In today’s release — that month-on-month (m/m) annualized PCE inflation was down from March peak, from 7% to 4% (and roughly the same as in July). Moreover, the core counterpart was also down from the April peak, from 7.7% to 4.1% (3.6% y/y hitting the Bloomberg consensus on the nose, and a little higher than m/m consensus.)