No, since 2020M03. No for headline, yes for core (at 8% level), since 2021M03.
Recession Talk: US and Euro Area
From Goldman Sachs (Milo, Struyven, Revisiting Recession Facts”) today:
We see the risk that the economy enters a recession in the next year at 30% in the US, 40% in the Euro area, and 45% in the UK. … Our subjective recession probabilities are significantly higher than the average 15% annual unconditional probability of advanced economies to enter a recession since the 1960s.
Of Revisions and Seasonality in the Pandemic Era
It’s important to recall, especially as some nowcasts suggest a negative reading for Q2 growth, that GDP numbers are revised. The first release is called an “advance” release because a substantial share of the inputs are estimated. Below are the various vintages of GDP, starting after the trough so as to better highlight recent revisions.
So You Think We Might Be In a Recession Today (Part IV)?
One Year Treasurys and One Year Forwards
Interest rates still expected to rise, but at slower pace:
The “Non-Technical Recession” Recession of 2001
I recall a conversation sometime in May 2001, when on the staff of the CEA, where the topic was how all the indicators were all pointing toward avoiding a recession. Indeed, using the oft-cited rule of thumb of two-consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, there was no 2001 recession (although there was by this criterion a period of about 2 years, 2002-04, when there was). Consider this graph of GDP, by different vintages:
Business Cycle Indicators, July 1st
IHS-Markit’s monthly GDP now down seven months. Some key indicators followed by NBER BCDC:
Term Spread Models for Recession by June 2023
Probabilities from 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr spreads:
Inflation, May 2022
Month-on-month indicators down, particularly core PCE:
GDP, GDO, and Seasonally Adjusted vs. Not Seasonally Adjusted
Year-on-year picture: