In assessing market views on future lumber prices, reader JohnH writes:
Futures markets aren’t foreseeing a decline in lumber prices any time soon.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LS*0/futures-prices
Velocity Is Not Stable
I thought this had been determined half a century ago, but just to remind people in case they’d forgotten.
Real Lumber Prices
PPI indicates they are down:
Guest Contribution: “Foreign official demand for US debt and US interest rates: Accounting for global common factors”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
If You Are Worrying About Inflation Eroding Wages…
So far, the lower paid are seeing the biggest gains…
CPI Inflation in September
Headline slightly above Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and core at consensus (0.4%), but month-on-month inflation rates are down relative to peaks earlier in the year. Re-opening inflation rates are decreasing in importance, as energy rises. The inflation is becoming more broad-based.
One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release
NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.
IMF: “Recovery During a Pandemic”
The IMF’s October 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts are out.
Just How Small Is the Impact of (Measured) Expected Inflation?
The debate over the role of expectations in inflation determination [e.g., discourse over Rudd’s working paper] gives me a sense of deja vu. That being said, it’s always useful to see what the data say, when running a simple OLS regression on a basic expectations augmented Phillips curve (without a statement on forecasting, which often includes conditioning on future developments). I examine PCE inflation over the 1986-2021Q2 period.
Guest Contribution: “Corporate Taxation and U.S. International Financial Integration: A consolidated-by-nationality approach”
Today, we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Agustín Bénétrix and André Sanchez Pacheco (Trinity College Dublin).