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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Recession? The Term Spread over the Past Four Recessions

A spate of articles mention the possibility of recession [1] [2]. Here’s the evolution of the 10yr-3mo and 10yr-2yr term spread in the months preceding the last four recessions.

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This entry was posted on March 7, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment in February

Nonfarm payroll surprises (release) on upside 675K vs. Bloomberg consensus 400K, private NFP 654K vs 478K. The 90% confidence interval for changes is +/- 120K (BLS). Still, the upside surprise does not change the general pattern of key business cycle indicators.

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This entry was posted on March 4, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Russian GDP Prospects Visualized

Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth estimate from 2% to -7%. I visualize the level of GDP thus:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

“Cabaret of Shadows”

A chamber opera with music by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand, in Houston this weekend.

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This entry was posted on March 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Market Implied Expected Rates

Interestingly, if implied forwards are to be believed, the Fed won’t be raising rates too fast.

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This entry was posted on March 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Not “No Exit” – Just “One Exit”

FromKateryna Yushchenko.

Source: Kateryna Yushchenko.

Translation: Гаага = Hague

 

 

This entry was posted on March 2, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators, March 1st

IHS-Markit just released its monthly GDP estimate for January, with 0% growth q/q. Bloomberg consensus for February nonfarm payroll shaved down to 400K, from 450K on 2/25.

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This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

A Forecast on Russian Policy Rate, Inflation

From Wells Fargo today:

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This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Risk, noon March 1st

Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk index – Acts (blue, left scale) and VIX (brown, right scale). 3/1 observation for VIX as of noon EST. Source: CBOE via FRED, Caldara and Iacoviello, accessed 3/1/2022.

This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Russian Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Prices

For Russia, it’s maybe 10%-17% for 1 quarter, 50%-70% for 4 quarters.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • June FT-Booth Macro Survey: GDP level same as March Survey
  • Policy Uncertainty Spikes

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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