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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Risk, noon March 1st

Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk index – Acts (blue, left scale) and VIX (brown, right scale). 3/1 observation for VIX as of noon EST. Source: CBOE via FRED, Caldara and Iacoviello, accessed 3/1/2022.

This entry was posted on March 1, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Russian Exchange Rate Pass Through into Consumer Prices

For Russia, it’s maybe 10%-17% for 1 quarter, 50%-70% for 4 quarters.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Risk and Safe Haven Effects

VIX up as GeoPolitical Risk rises. Dollar jumps on the invasion, but eases today, Treasury yields down due to safe haven effects. Anticipated interest rate increases moderate.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

FT-IGM February Survey of Macroeconomists

Survey taken last week, published today here. The FT-IGM Survey of Macroeconomists median forecast implies this path for GDP:

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Russia Deploys the Interest Rate Defense (and probably everything else)

Russia raises the policy rate to 20%, from 9.5%, which was itself raised on 2/11.

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Ruble Futures

Front month, CME as of about 5pm Central:

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Sanctions on Russia, International vs. Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Capital Controls

Interesting quote from 2020 IMF Article IV, Annex III: External Sector Assessment (distributed February 2021):

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Fighting the Last Inflation War”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators at End-February, January Inflation Recap

Personal income and consumption for January, and manufacturing and trade industry sales for December, were released last week. The PCE deflator for January was also released, rounding out January inflation numbers.

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This entry was posted on February 26, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

Risk and Uncertainty Measures

VIX, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Geopolitical Risk:

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This entry was posted on February 26, 2022 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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