Paul Krugman notes research out of NY Fed (analysis here) suggesting sensitivity of household inflation expectations to current actual is lower than in the past. As a reminder, here’re household expectations (Michigan, NY Fed) vs. others (economists) at the 1 year horizon.
Wisconsin Exports in a Post-Trump Trade War, Mid-Pandemic World
Despite the improvement in nominal exports ascribed to Wisconsin after Trump, real exports haven’t really recovered – and may not until global economic recovery. What does this mean for Wisconsin employment?
Business Cycle indicators, mid-February
Retail sales, industrial (but not manufacturing) production far above consensus.
Wells Fargo “Pressure Gauge” for Supply Chain Pressures
Russia, FX Reserves and External Pressures in the Event of War
A recent NY Times article noted that Russia had taken measures to insulate itself from economic sanctions, including building up foreign exchange reserves. It’s true reserves are high, and in relative terms more so once one considers that nominal GDP [in USD terms] is smaller than in 2014.
Inflation Expectations at 1 Year Horizon
Economists’ expectations rise, while household measures trend sideways.
Risk and Policy Uncertainty Measures – Gulf War I and Today
Looking back to one of the last major ground conflicts. In August 1990, Saddam Hussein’s forces invaded Kuwait. Here’re some risk and uncertainty indicators — some developed afterwards — for that period.
Risk and Uncertainty before the Open
VIX jumped on Friday; the Economic Policy Uncertainty index rose on Saturday.
Nowcasting, Big Data, MIDAS, Lasso, etc.
I get the impression that people mix up things that are logically distinct, even if they might overlap. For instance, one reader says criticizes the failure to use big data at the Fed [1] [2] (see this post for a rejoinder) and in a closely adjoining comment, contrasts the GDPNow series run by the Atlanta Fed and the absence of a global counterpart at the Board. Let’s define some terms, so people who are inclined toward confusion become less confused.
“Big Data” at the Fed
A reader bewails the failure of the Fed to use “new” tools like “big data”. And yet, 10 seconds to type into the Fed’s search engine yields dozens of pages of results. Why is it that some people fail to understand the limitations of their own knowledge, and simultaneously refuse to use “search engines”. Anyway, here’s excerpts from the first two pages of results: