consider the velocity of M2…
Financial Markets and Omicron and Powell
Five year inflation breakeven (unadjusted) down, 10yr-3mo term spread down, VIX and EPU up, and S&P 500 down.
Consumer Confidence, Inflation and Unemployment
There’s a lot of discussion regarding the negative impact of inflation on consumer sentiment. That’s definitely there – but unemployment also has a negative impact. And there is a (at least short run) tradeoff between the two. Relevantly, what would unemployment be in the absence of the American Recovery Plan, the CARES Act, and expansionary monetary policies of the Fed?
Guest Contribution: “Inflation is Back, But the 1970s Aren’t”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Forward Guidance Effectiveness, Now vs. Then
I’m teaching unconventional monetary policy in Financial Systems course. Here’s some interesting graphs (not altogether new), relating to forward guidance effectiveness.
Two Pictures from the Financial Markets
Usually, the Friday after Thanksgiving holiday is a quiet trading day. Today, there was lots of news to react to.
One Year Inflation Expectations
Expectations and forecasts from economists continue to diverge from consumer based expectations.
October Inflation Recap
With PCE inflation figures in, we have the key price indices for October. Core PCE inflation was at market expectations (Bloomberg). Nowcasts for November inflation is down markedly.
Monthly Business Cycle Indicators: The Rebound Continues
With the earlier rebound in industrial production, slightly accelerated growth in consumption, key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC look a little better than even a week ago.
GDP, GDI, and Forecasts/Nowcasts
GDP growth in Q3 was revised up 0.1% (SAAR). Real GDI was released; taking average of GDP and GDI reveals the possibility that actual growth was faster than indicated by GDP alone. And while forecasted levels have been downwardly revised over the past months, the most recent nowcasts suggest acceleration.