The October Wall Street Journal survey of economists, now quarterly, is out. A substantial downshift in the forecasted level of GDP is apparent.
Business Cycle Indicators, Mid-October
Here is a graph of some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, including industrial production, which missed expectations (actual -1.3% vs. +0.2% Bloomberg consensus, m/m not annualized):
A Graphical Primer to Interpreting the Sources of Inflation in the Covid Era
For students in Econ 435, using model originally in Robert Hall and John Taylor, “Macroeconomics”, and shown in the ADAS handout.
Lumber Futures As Predictors
In assessing market views on future lumber prices, reader JohnH writes:
Futures markets aren’t foreseeing a decline in lumber prices any time soon.
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/LS*0/futures-prices
Velocity Is Not Stable
I thought this had been determined half a century ago, but just to remind people in case they’d forgotten.
Real Lumber Prices
PPI indicates they are down:
Guest Contribution: “Foreign official demand for US debt and US interest rates: Accounting for global common factors”
Today we are fortunate to be able to present a guest contribution written by Rashad Ahmed (Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, US Treasury). The views presented are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of the US Treasury, or any other organizations the author is affiliated with.
If You Are Worrying About Inflation Eroding Wages…
So far, the lower paid are seeing the biggest gains…
CPI Inflation in September
Headline slightly above Bloomberg consensus (0.4% vs. 0.3% m/m) and core at consensus (0.4%), but month-on-month inflation rates are down relative to peaks earlier in the year. Re-opening inflation rates are decreasing in importance, as energy rises. The inflation is becoming more broad-based.
One Year Expectations on the Eve of the CPI Release
NY Fed’s consumer survey runs hot at 5.3%, hotter than MIchigan’s 4.6%.