That is the proposition forwarded by Kevin Drum at Jabberwocking. Verbatim:
So: have we really created 2.5 million new jobs since March? I’m not sure I believe that.
The graph he posted summarizes his argument succinctly:
Short Horizon Inflation Expectations – Survey and Market Based
One year horizon:
GS “Recession Watch” Odds at 35%
From M. Abecasis/GS today:
Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
NFP employment increase of 263K surprises on upside (vs. Bloomberg consensus of 200K). This is the resulting picture for some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Let the WTO Referee Carbon Border Tariffs”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.
Month-on-Month Inflation Seems to Have Peaked
That’s the message from PCE deflators today.
Business Cycle Indicators at the Beginning of December 2022
With the release of personal consumption and income for October, we have the following picture of key series followed by the NBER BCDC (along with monthly GDP from IHS Markit, formerly from Macroeconomic Advisers).
2022Q3 2nd Release, Alternative Measures of Activity, and a Recession of 2022H1?
Here’s GDP, GDO, and GDP+ through 2022Q3, and monthly indicators through 2022M10. I (still) don’t see a recession in 2022H1.
Disposition of Forces in Kherson Oblast, 28 Nov 2022
Here’s a picture from late yesterday:
Source: as of 28 Nov, militaryland.net, accessed 29 Nov 2022.
See latest report from ISW for context.