Mr. Steven Kopits writes:
Another is vehicle miles traveled, which is either very short term leading (ie, failing one month or so prior to the official onset of recession), coincident, or lagging by up to 4-5 months if one is using, say, 12 month moving sums.
Some people point to initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Some additional notes for my students:
Notes for my students:
of GDP, along with current Gross Domestic Output (average of GDP and GDI):
Year-on-year CPI headline inflation is expected to be lower as of a year from now, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Look around at enough indicators (say vehicle miles traveled) and you might think so. A follow up to this post. Let’s look at what conventional and high frequency indicators say.
Robert Haveman, a prime force behind the establishment of the La Follette School of Public Affairs, passed last week. Today, Tim Smeeding, a longtime friend, colleague, co-author and student of Bob Haveman, shares some thoughts on this occasion.
For reference: