For those interested in the RMB, here’s my book review:
Some 1 Year Ahead Inflation Expectations — Households vs. Economists (again)
Household forecasts are about 2 percentage points above those of economists.
Some Trends in Real Wages
An argument increasingly being made is that inflation is being built into wage demands in a context of really tight labor markets, and this would induce a wage-price spiral. This outcome is plausible, but I think it’s useful to compare wages against CPI to see if wages are really abnormally high, and are starting to rise in tandem with inflation. [text corrected 8/13]
Business Cycle Indicators and Retail Sales as of Mid-July 2021
Industrial production was released yesterday, and retail sales today.
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Manufactured Exports
Does Wisconsin’s fortunes — as a manufacturing heavy state — depend on what happens in the rest-of-the world? The answer is, partly, yes…
Inflation Expectations of Consumers
A lot of coverage of how the NY Fed’s survey of consumers’ inflation expectations had moved substantially (e.g. NYT). A couple of observations: (1) household/consumer based expectations are upwardly biased; (2) the high inflation is expected to be temporary, in the sense that the expected inflation in the next 12 months is higher than 12 month inflation ending in June 2024.
Wisconsin Employment in June 2021: Halting Growth Continues
Employment numbers for June were released for today.
“Do Central Banks Rebalance Their Currency Shares?”
Paper by me, Hiro Ito, and Robert McCauley. From the abstract.
“The impact of lockdowns on international trade”
PPI and CPI for June
From Reuters today: