The CBO recently released long term projections for Federal budget variables, including debt. These projections rely upon the assumed path of interest rates. Here, there is considerable uncertainty. Figure 1 presents the 10 year Treasury yield, and CBO projections at various dates.
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators as of 5 March
The positive surprise in nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment — 379K vs Bloomberg consensus of 182K — was good news. However, it’s important to place this in context. NFP is 9.5 million lower (i.e., 6.2% lower) than the NBER peak in February 2020. In the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
A Literature Review on Economic Policy Response to Covid-19
An excellent review of empirical findings regarding the various provisions is contained in this FEDS Notes article, by Elena Falcettoni, and Vegard Nygaard.
The COVID-19 pandemic has kept economists busy analyzing many aspects of economic side of the coronavirus impact. This note is meant to present an overview of what economists have analyzed regarding the implications of two of the main components of the CARES Act that affect individuals: the increased UI benefits and the stimulus checks. We present the findings from the literature on these two policies with an eye on potential future governmental interventions.
Taken together, these two components have been effective at providing stimulus and lowering poverty. In the aggregate, Kaplan et al. (2020) (PDF) find that the initial UI benefits and stimulus payments boosted aggregate consumption by 2 percentage points, while Bayer et al. (2020) show that the CARES transfers reduced the output loss due to the pandemic by up to 5 percentage points.
Complete note here.
Business Cycle Indicators as of 3 March
The goods production side of the economy continues to recover, and monthly GDP comes close to October 2010 levels. Nonfarm payroll employment as implied by the Bloomberg survey is for a slight increase of 182K. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
The RMB’s Progress (in Internationalization)
The rapid ascent in CNY reserves was in 2018, with some resumption in 2020. From 2016 to 2019, Renminbi turnover rose from 4% to 4.3% (out of 200%).
Business Cycle Indicators as of 26 February: Consumption Rebound
The goods production side of the economy continues to recover, consumption jumps, while other indicators faltered. Some key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Globalization and Inflation Risks
In a globalized American economy, are domestic determinants (e.g., US output gap) the only important factors?
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Per James Hamilton and Menzie Chinn
Guest Contribution: “Central Bank Digital Currency: Some Macro-Financial Implications”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Hongyi Chen, Senior Advisor at the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research, and Pierre Siklos, Professor of Economics at Wilfrid Laurier University. The views expressed here are their own and do not reflect the official opinions of Hong Kong Institute for Monetary and Financial Research or any other institutions the authors are affiliated with.
On the Consequences of Inflammatory Language Use on Social Media
Remember assertions that the use of the term “China Virus” in the stead of SARS-CoV-2 or Covid-19 was not only appropriate, but desirable? From Time:
Since the start of the pandemic last spring, Asian Americans have faced racist violence at a much higher rate than previous years. The NYPD reported that hate crimes motivated by anti-Asian sentiment jumped 1,900% in New York City in 2020. Stop AAPI Hate, a reporting database created at the beginning of the pandemic as a response to the increase in racial violence, received 2,808 reports of anti-Asian discrimination between March 19 and December 31, 2020. The violence has continued into 2021, and President Joe Biden signed an executive order denouncing anti-Asian discrimination shortly after taking office in January. While anti-Asian violence has taken place nationwide and particularly in major cities, the uptick in attacks in 2021 has been particularly focused in the Bay Area, especially in San Francisco and Oakland’s Chinatowns.
Well, Steven Kopits, the Asian-American community of America thanks you.
See also WaPo.