(not in 2018, but in 2002-03):
What Remains of the Inflation Scare of October 2021?
Some messages from the market and from estimated inflation rates.
Are Real Wages Being Eroded by Inflation?
The answer depends on the deflator.
Do We Really Not Know What Happened to NFP Given Likely Revisions?
BLS documents the extent of revisions going from 1st to 2nd, 1st to 3rd, 2nd to 3rd releases of NFP, here. Using the 2019 mean absolute revisions, the range of plausible values for employment growth (not percent growth) is shown below.
Employment in October: Faster Growth
The employment release for October provided lots of interesting facts. First employment growth is faster than anticipated, and second was faster in September than originally estimated.
Serious Thinking about Imprecision in Economic Statistics
Reader rsm responds to my citation of GDP and Human Development Index data thusly:
Why not include the standard errors?
Again, because they would be so wide, you could tell any story and back it up with data?
Aggregate Real Imports and Exports, through the Trade War
From the advance GDP release:
DNI: “Updated Assessment on Covid-19 Origins
From the declassified (10/29) report (noted in this LA Times article):
Economic Activity and Inflation Measures for September [updated]
While the GDP release dominated the news, we got new looks at economic activity and price pressures on Friday (and monthly GDP today).
Nonresidential Investment-GDP Is Low, but Higher than Just Before the Pandemic
In Jim’s review of the Q3 advance release, he noted disappointments in residential investment. What is also worrying is the deceleration in real business fixed investment growth, and the decline in equipment investment.