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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Have Nowcasts and Forecasts Ever Dropped so Quickly When Not about to Go into a Recession?

Asking for a friend. From Atlanta Fed today:

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This entry was posted on March 3, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Reinversion Continues

End of week  spreads:

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession Outlook Darkening

From betting markets, economists:

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Instantaneous Inflation Rising

Year-on-Year looks better.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Off a Cliff

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee key indicators. Consumption (preliminary) falls markedly.

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This entry was posted on February 28, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Egg Prices Keep on Rising

From Trading Economics today:

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This entry was posted on February 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Hello ‘nversion, My Old Friend…[updated]

As of today’s close, the constant maturity 10yr-3mo spread is … -0.6% (as of 2/26 close):

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This entry was posted on February 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

The Betting on Measles

Sad news informs the revision to odds on measles cases this year:

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This entry was posted on February 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Weekly Macro Indicators – Growth at about Trend

For data available through 2/15. New datapoints tomorrow, for data available through 2/22.

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This entry was posted on February 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Conference Board: “Pessimism about the future returned”

Conference Board index at 98.3 vs. 102.7 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 105.3. Here is a picture of (standardized) U.Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board and Gallup Confidence measures.

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This entry was posted on February 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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