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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Sixty Years of Money, GDP and the Price Level

Looks like this:

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This entry was posted on June 1, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Real Borrowing Costs for the US Treasury: May 2021

As of May 2021, the nominal 10 year Treasury rate is 1.6%. The real rate is -0.9%.

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This entry was posted on May 31, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Output Gaps and Interest Rates – Survey of Professional Forecasters vs. Troika

The White House economic assumptions (based on February data) released today in the FY ’22 budget imply full employment output at year’s end, contrasting with 1.4% using Survey of Professional Forecasters (from May)

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This entry was posted on May 29, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Statistics and the Pandemic”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy  School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate.


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This entry was posted on May 29, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

One Year Ahead Inflation Expectations

and expectations for May…

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and Inflation, End-May 2021

April personal income and consumption figures were released today, along with real manufacturing and trade industry sales. Here’s a depiction of these figures in the context of key macro indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:

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This entry was posted on May 28, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Inflation Squeeze on Wages?

Relative compression vis a vis recent past (not controlling for composition), but still up since the onset of the pandemic.

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This entry was posted on May 27, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin’s Recovery: Employment, Coincident Index, GDP, Personal Income

In progress, but incomplete.

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This entry was posted on May 26, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

Steel Tariffs and Iron/Steel Prices

The Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were a bad idea during the Trump administration. They’re still a bad idea.

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This entry was posted on May 25, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

A Logged Look at Bitcoin

If you believe the world is in base e, then this is a better picture of the Bitcoin’s progress.

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This entry was posted on May 24, 2021 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • IMF World Economic Outlook October Forecast Out
  • Weekly Indicators of Economic Growth
  • Some Business Cycle Observables
  • Irony of Ironies: Trump’s War on the Big Mac
  • Policy Uncertainty during the Shutdown: Elevated

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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