The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter. That’s well above the 3.1% average growth that the U.S. experienced over 1947-2019. Kudos to Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta economist Patrick Higgins, whose nowcast of 6.4% that Menzie highlighted yesterday anticipated today’s release on the nose.
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Forecasts, on the Eve of the 2021Q2 Advance Release [Updated]
Q2 GDP will be released tomorrow morning, and Jim will be providing his insights on the numbers. Today, the IMF released its July 2021 World Economic Outlook forecasts, which gives us and opportunity to recap where we stand. [Updated 7/29, 1pm Pacific]
Wildfires in 2021: Don’t Be Lulled Into Complacency by YTD Figures
The upward trend in acres burned is shown below.
Still Crazy After All These Years
Although there is something to be said for consistency. For instance, I see someone blogging (!):
Why Did US Economic Policy Uncertainty Rise So Much During the Pandemic?
I was doing a review of measured economic policy uncertainty, and found an interesting divergence between the US and Europe:
PCE Price Index Overshooting … or Undershooting
William Luther at AIER asks “Is Inflation Merely Catching Up?“:
Guest Contribution: “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared at Project Syndicate. The underlying econometrics are spelled out in “The Virus, Vaccination, and Voting: An Econometric Analysis.” I am grateful for the excellent research assistance of Randy Kotti.
“this [Covid-19] pandemic ain’t 1918–never was, never will be”
— Comment by rick stryker, August 19, 2020.
Covid-19 Forecasts, One Year Ago and Today
One year ago (7/29):
IHME Projections for Deaths per capita In One Month, Two Months
IHME updated its forecasts yesterday. First the time series for total excess deaths: