Mass Shootings and the Trump Effect

Poisson regression, 1982M08-2019M08 (thru 8/4 for August):

eventst = -9.84 + 0.723 trumpt – 0.424 bant +  0.0039 time

Adj-R2 = 0.17, SER = 0.480, NOBS = 445. Bold denotes significant at 10% msl.

Addendum, 8/6 8am Pacific: events is mass shooting event count as defined by Mother Jones tabulation, ban is assault weapons ban dummy, trump is a Trump administration dummy, time is a linear time trend.

Interpretation: Each month of the Trump administration is associated  0.7 more mass shooting events 70% more mass shooting events, so jumping from 0.43 to 0.88 events going from 2016M12 to 2017M01; or approximately 5.4 more events per year 8.4 more events per year. [h/t Rick Stryker for correction of interpretation].

The Answer Is No (and No)

Figure 1: CNY/USD nominal exchange rate (red, left inverted scale), 8/5 value (red triangle, left inverted scale), trade weighted real value of CNY against broad basket of currencies (blue, right log scale). Up denotes appreciation. Light orange shading denotes Trump administration. Source: FRED, and BIS.

In a new (and extremely timely) EconoFact memo on Should the United States Try to Weaken the Dollar?, Michael Klein and Maury Obstfeld ask:

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The 16 Month-long Blip in Soybean Prices

On July 9, 2018, reader CoRev disparaged futures prices as accurate predictors of future spot prices for soybeans, writing:

no one has denied the impact of tariffs on FUTURES prices. Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.

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A Business-Cycle Mystery: Manslaughter or Murder?

If recoveries don’t die of old-age, then they either have “accidents” or they’re murdered. I’m not sure what a business-cycle accident is, but we can check what might have killed the recovery, should we enter a recession in 2020, as suggested by some forward looking financial indicators. I’ll look at investment spending, a forward looking variable, highly sensitive to interest rates, and the outlook for economic activity and uncertainty.

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