That’s from the title of a Harvard Gazette article today:
Most economists live in the world of theory, using careful calculations to predict the future. But Richard N. Cooper believed theory couldn’t tell the whole story when it came to solving real-world problems, particularly when they involve the whole world — which he amply demonstrated after a global recession in the 1970s.
Chad Bown, US-China Phase 1 Tracker:
No matter how you look at it – use data on China’s imports or US exports – through November, China purchased only slightly more than half of the US goods Trump pledged it would buy over all of 2020 under his Phase One deal.
Nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down 100 thousand, contra +81 Bloomberg consensus, even worse than GS and DB.
Goldman Sachs prediction for December NFP is -50 thousand, and Deutsche Bank is -75 thousands. The current Bloomberg consensus of +71 thousand (down from +100 thousand on the 6th).
To a 14 year high (in absolute terms, not as a share of GDP). Shrinkage in US-China deficit stalls.
Weekly Covid-19 fatalities are falling according to CDC estimates, but those numbers are likely to be revised upward; going from last week’s release to this week’s, excess fatalities have been revised upward drastically. Unofficial estimates indicate a resumption of the upward movement in fatalities to a new peak (18690/week for week ending 1/2/2021, averaging 2670 deaths/day).
ADP at -123 thousand vs. expected +88 thousand.
Stock, currency and bond markets respond (up, up, yield up) on news of likely Democratic control of the Senate
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Daniel Soques (University of North Carolina Wilmington). The views presented represent those of the authors alone and do not reflect the views of their respective institutions.
With the release of the IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) monthly GDP, key indicators tracked by NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) continue to show mixed behavior. Monthly GDP declined in November (joining personal income ex.-transfers in decline):