The Survey of Professional Forecasters’ Q3 forecast came out today, the Wall Street Journal August survey yesterday, and the IGM/Fivethirtyeight Covid-19 panel a few days ago. Here’s an opportunity to compare and contrast perspectives – as shown in Figure 1.
Worst Statistical Analysis I Have Seen This Year
(And I have seen a lot of terrible analysis) [Update 8/14/2020: the author has taken down the post, but here is an archived 8/13/2020 version of the webpage]
Reader Bruce Hall recommends links to this article which asserts that 2020 is not anomalous in terms of deaths. In fact, it’s 20th out the last 21 years!
Wall Street Economists’ Outlook
The trajectory of the recovery according to the consensus is little changed from the Wall Street Journal‘s July survey — despite the derailment of the Phase 4 recovery package. However, more analysts perceive a “W” than before.
Teetering on the Precipice (Still)
Round 6 results of the FiveThirtyEight/IGM COVID-19 Economic Outlook Survey Series is out. Fivethirtyeight characterizes the results:
The Double Dip Cometh?
My base scenario is a slow recovery. However, I have always viewed — given the sheer incompetence of the Trump administration — the possibility of a double dip recession as a real one. Today, Diane Swonk lays out the case:
Covid-19 Fatalities, Excess Fatalities, Forecasts, Again
From CDC, Atlantic/Covid Tracking Project, and IHME:
Business Cycle Indicators, August 7th
With today’s employment situation release, here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0.
The US-China Trade War/Soybean Front: Home before the (Next Batch of) Leaves Fall
On July 9, 2018, over two years ago, reader CoRev wrote:
Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.
The GDP Collapse: It Is What It Is
Jim discussed elements of the 2020Q2 advance release on Thursday. Here, I amplify some aspects that he mentioned.
Business Cycle Indicators: August 3, 2020
Here are five key indicators referenced by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee in Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2019M02=0.