Figure 1: Manufacturing employment, in 000’s, s.a., from BLS (blue), and from ADP (brown), on log scale. Light green shading denotes data that will be benchmark-revised in February release. Source: BLS and ADP via FRED. [Updated 12/7 to include November BLS data]
Manufacturing peaked a little earlier in the ADP data (June) vs. BLS (August), but ADP suggests a much less pronounced rise to peak during 2019.
See if you can find when Trump makes his statement about trade negotiations with China. Winning!
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Source: policyuncertainty.com
Or, “Ready, fire, aim”. From Mitchell et al. “The Economics of a Targeted Economic Development Subsidy,” Mercatus Center:
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting.
I’ve been tapped to teach the second course in the statistics/econometrics sequence at the La Follette School. I need examples of excruciatingly bad econometrics to discuss. Please post your suggestions as comments. In 2016, I assigned students to examine the empirical content of “business conditions” indices, like Stephen Moore’s/ALEC Economic Outlook rankings.
Or not.
Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and Wisconsin (red), in logs normalized to 0 in September 2018. Light orange shading denotes Walker administration. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.
The Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit was fully phased in as of January 2016.
