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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

CDC Covid-19 Fatality Count and Excess Deaths

CDC has released data through 15 August as of today.

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Twenty Years of GDP, and Other Random Graphs

As I was prepping slides for my macro policy course, I generated this graph:

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This entry was posted on August 26, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Recovery Forecasts and Nowcasts

The IGM/Fivethirtyeight Round 7 survey is out, with discussion here. The poll results are here. Below are some forecasts and nowcasts to consider.

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Significance of Gold’s Record $2,000 Price”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.  A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.

 


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This entry was posted on August 24, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “The Fiscal Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Cities: An Initial Assessment”

Today we are fortunate to present a contribution written by Andrew Reschovsky, Professor Emeritus of Public Affairs and Applied Economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. 


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This entry was posted on August 23, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

No V for Thee (i.e., we’re not going to get 49% SAAR)

From Reuters:

“I think the economy is on a self-sustaining recovery and it’s a V-shaped recovery.”

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Contemplating the (No Deal) Cliff

The recovery package cliff, that is. DeutscheBank research outlines what they think is likely (baseline) and what a no-deal means for disposable personal income.

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This entry was posted on August 21, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

Howlers

Some people say the craziest things:

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This entry was posted on August 20, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

July Wisconsin Employment Report Released

 

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment in Wisconsin, June release (brown), July release (pink), Economic Outlook forecast of June (teal), author’s forecast based on national employment (brown box), in 000’s, s.a. Source: BLS, DWD, Wisconsin Economic Outlook (June 2020), and author’s calculations.

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This entry was posted on August 20, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

July Wisconsin Employment

DWD will release July numbers tomorrow. Here’s my guess for employment. First, what we know now.

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This entry was posted on August 19, 2020 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Core Inflation Nowcasts and Tracking
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  • Manufacturing on the Ropes?
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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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