The Economic Report of the President, 2020 is out as of today. Chapter 9 presents the underpinnings for the seemingly implausible GDP forecast presented in the Budget last week — a forecast that’s a full percentage point faster than CBO’s.
Pre-Benchmarking Manufacturing Employment in MI, PA, and WI
The pre-benchmarked establishment survey suggests declining employment in key industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Using the methodology I used to inferring the national establishment survey, can we anticipate the revision to manufacturing in these states?
“Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing”
That’s the title of an October 2019 International Finance Discussion Paper (Fed) by Shaghil Ahmed, Ricardo Correa, Daniel A. Dias, Nils Gornemann, Jasper Hoek, Anil Jain, Edith Liu, and Anna Wong, which has taken on heightened relevance given current events. From the abstract:
Air Freight, Global Supply Chains, and Sensitivity to China
Some pictures to envision the impact of covid-19: (1) lots of US int’l trade goes by air, (2) and US sensitivity to disruption to air freight from China, by sector.
Guest Contribution: “Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, exchange rate and inflation”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by By Laurent Ferrara (SKEMA Business School, Paris, and Director of International Institute of Forecasters), Luca Metelli (Banca d’Italia), Filippo Natoli (Banca d’Italia) and Daniele Siena (Banque de France). The views presented represent those of the authors, and not necessarily those of the institutions the authors are affilliated with.
How Plausible Is the Administration’s GDP Forecast?
As has been noted, the Administration’s forecast is about a percentage point higher than CBO’s. This seems like a large economic difference; as I’m teaching econometrics this semester, how does this seem in terms of statistical significance. Figure 1 below summarizes.
Malleable and Ductile
Those are two characteristics of gold … and of Judy Shelton’s economics. From Deutsche Bank today (Luzzetti & Hooper):
Iron and Steel Primary Production Employment
Down, down, down.
Why I Still Think June 2019 Employment Is Lower than Reported
The data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) suggests to me that employment in June 2019 (last available QCEW data) is 505 thousand lower than estimated (although possibly as little as 111 thousand, as large as 899 thousand, using a 95% prediction interval).
Wisconsin in the Trade War of 2018-
I’m interviewed on Wisconsin Public Radio today, in the wake of declining Wisconsin exports.