Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jian Wang (Chinese University of Hong Kong – Shenzhen) and Jason Wu (Hong Kong Monetary Authority). All views are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of HKMA.
An Event Study: Trade Truce-Part 1, or Not?
See if you can find when Trump makes his statement about trade negotiations with China. Winning!
Guest Contribution: “Let’s Go Back to Good Old Tariff-Cutting”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Trade Policy Uncertainty: US, China
Source: policyuncertainty.com
Foxconn as Case Study of Targeted Development Subsidy
Or, “Ready, fire, aim”. From Mitchell et al. “The Economics of a Targeted Economic Development Subsidy,” Mercatus Center:
Odds on USMCA Passage by End-2019
Guest Contribution: “A non-Gaussian macro world”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of International Economics, SKEMA Business School, Paris), and Director, International Institute of Forecasting.
Bleg: Examples of Bad Econometrics to Teach
I’ve been tapped to teach the second course in the statistics/econometrics sequence at the La Follette School. I need examples of excruciatingly bad econometrics to discuss. Please post your suggestions as comments. In 2016, I assigned students to examine the empirical content of “business conditions” indices, like Stephen Moore’s/ALEC Economic Outlook rankings.
How the Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit Saved Wisconsin Manufacturing
Or not.
Figure 1: Manufacturing employment in US (blue), and Wisconsin (red), in logs normalized to 0 in September 2018. Light orange shading denotes Walker administration. Source: BLS, DWD, author’s calculations.
The Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit was fully phased in as of January 2016.
Guest Contribution: “Yet Another Look at the Recent Inversion of the Yield Curve”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Kim Kowalewski, formerly Senior Adviser in the Macroeconomic Analysis Division of the Congressional Budget Office.