Going from August 22rd to 23rd, front month futures dropped 12-6; the August 2020 futures price (which are an unbiased predictor of one year ahead spot prices) was down 8-4. Hence, farmers should prepare for a long, tough, period of self-inflicted (by the administration) damage.
Prediction Markets on Recession by January 2021
PredictIt, accessed 4pm Pacific today:
Who’s Forecasting a (Technical*) Recession?
I keep on hearing that economists are lousy at forecasting, citing the An, Jalles, and Loungani (2018) analysis. Recently, we heard Larry Kudlow claim that nobody was predicting a recession in December 2007, when he was dismissing the possibility. Without disputing the consensus is lousy at detecting turning points in real time, we can check if all economists are.
CES Preliminary Benchmark Revision: NFP
Down 501K in March. Private NFP down 514K.
Back-of-the-Envelope Calculation of Trump Induced Dollar Appreciation
If a Recession Occurs, Plenty of People Will Have Predicted It
NABE survey, WSJ survey, Bloomberg survey, PredictIt
Recession Probability If the Rest of August Is Like the First Half
…using plain vanilla 10yr-3mo probit regression, over 1986M01-2019M08 period, using data shown below in Figure 1
“The data are pretty clear that we are not in a recession”
Surprisingly, that’s not a quote from Larry Kudlow on today’s news shows. Rather that is then Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Ed Lazear on May 8, 2008. Just to remind people, that is 5 months after the recession start determined by NBER. Continue reading
Winning: Midwest Manufacturing Employment
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin drop, as US manufacturing employment rises.
A History of Trade Policy Retaliation: Soybeans Edition
As the date of the resolution of the US-China trade dispute drifts further and further — perhaps past the 2020 elections according to Mr. Trump — it behooves us to look at what soybean futures contracts for September 2019 indicated as of Trump’s announcement of Section 301 action against China ($10.30 bushel on 3/22/2018) vs $8.67 today (Sept. 2019 is the front month future for soybeans now).