Final May figures for Michigan survey are out. As noted in the release, final figures are more positive with the inclusion of post-pause responses. Here’s the picture of confidence and sentiment, updated.
Business Cycle Indicators as Reported at May’s End
Consumption level is revised downward, while personal income ex transfers continues to rise. Manufacturing and trade sales rise in March. First is a picture of key variables followed by the NBER’s BCDC:
Stephen Moore Critiques the CBO
Mr. Moore continues his reign of (economic) errors, now tackling the CBO’s (and JCT’s) record on predictions, in “Save us from the CBO”
What Does a Rising Long Term US Government Yield Mean?
I was thinking about this, as people were remarking on how the 30 year bond was rising.
Economic Activity: GDP, GDO, GDP+, Final Sales
As of 2nd release for 2025Q1.
Weekly Indicators of GDP Growth
The Lewis-Mertens-Stock/NY Fed measure for data through 5/24 is down to 1.88%, down from 2.79% on the week of Trump’s inauguration, down from peak of 3.07%, recording data before “Liberation Day”.
Furniture Prices Up, Up and Away in April
Can’t wait to see May data.
Some Stabilization in Economic Confidence
While (UMich) economic sentiment (preliminary) falls.
Imports from China, Foretold
More accurately, nowcasted using inbound container traffic. Two thirds of Chinese imports (by value) comes by sea freight. And sea freight from China doesn’t seem to be rebounding; from Torsten Slok:
Photos from a Conference
I was at a conference — actually two — in Singapore: the Asian Bureau for Finance and Economic Research annual conference, and the Asian Monetary Policy Forum. In the first, I attended a talk by Steven Davis (Hoover), on “Measuring Policy Uncertainty, Assessing its Consequences”. One slide pretty much summed up my feelings about these times…