He’s made a lot more work for me over the past two years — re-arranging and updating lecture slides. One thing is moving up and emphasizing what a recession is (a 20 year old student doesn’t remember the last one, really), and what current indicators are flashing. (You can imagine what it’s done for my international trade class!)
Gonna Have to be a Big Revision to Change the Picture
“Artemisia” – An Opera
St. Paul’s Chapel, Broadway and Fulton Street
The Choir of Trinity Wall Street, NOVUS NY, and Trinity Baroque Orchestra
March 7 and 9, 2019 at 7pm
Time’s Arrow
Laura Elise Schwendinger Artemisia
The Fault Is … in Ourselves
Or more correctly, in Mr. Trump. As reported by Bloomberg, Mr. Trump has said:
“a gentleman that likes raising interest rates in the Fed, we have a gentleman that loves quantitative tightening in the Fed, we have a gentleman that likes a very strong dollar in the Fed.”
What Has the Wisconsin Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit Wrought?
Has manufacturing value added increased above what was expected, in response to the (costly) Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit? Comparing against Minnesota (which did not implement such a measure) suggests no.
Trinity Wall Street presents Operas “Artemisia” and “Susanna”
March 5–9, 2019
St. Paul’s Chapel, Broadway and Fulton Street
The Choir of Trinity Wall Street, NOVUS NY, and Trinity Baroque Orchestra
Free
Continuing the commitment to amplifying the voices of female artists across multiple mediums, this year’s Time’s Arrow festival juxtaposes old and new stories of the biblical figure Susanna. Exploring sensitive themes of our time, the festival includes the fully staged world premiere of the new opera Artemisia (composer Laura Schwendinger, librettist Ginger Strand and Stage Director Christopher Alden) and concerts of Handel’s Susanna as Trinity continues its presentation of the composer’s oratorios. Artemisia tells the story of the Baroque artist who portrayed herself as Susanna in her famous painting Susanna and the Elders.
The long expansion continues
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced yesterday that U.S. real GDP grew at a 2.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2018. That’s below the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years, but better than the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began in 2009:Q3.
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Guest Contribution: “Bold Ideas are Not Always Better than Old Ideas”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on February 25th.
Continue readingIs California in Recession? (Part XV)
Back a little over a year ago, Political Calculations asked if California was in recession.
Going by these [household survey based labor market] measures, it would appear that recession has arrived in California, which is partially borne out by state level GDP data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. [text as accessed on 12/27/2017]
Today’s release of the 2018Q3 state GDP figures provides an opportunity to revisit this question — it’s likely no recession occurred.
Continue readingIf a Recession Shows Up in 2020, Who Will Have Predicted It?
Recessions, once they are underway, happen fast — a lot faster than expansions. Who’s forecasting recessions, according to the WSJ February survey (the February Survey of Professional Forecasters has been postponed until March because of the data delays associated with the Trump government shutdown).
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