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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Does Policy Uncertainty Matter?

The Atlanta Fed along w/Bloom (Stanford) and Davis (Chicago) survey business operators and finds it does!

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This entry was posted on April 5, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

“A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses”

That’s the title of my new paper with Hiro Ito. The US current account deficit (as a share of world GDP) remains, but China’s surplus shrinks…

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This entry was posted on April 4, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Empirically Assessing “a whole world of hurt”

That’s how an unidentified White House official characterized the impact of closing the southern border.

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This entry was posted on April 1, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Two Years of “Winning”: Messages from GDP, International Investment Releases

The release of the final release for GDP, and the international investment position provides an opportunity to assess progress on the trade war. I for one have gotten tired of “winning”.

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This entry was posted on April 1, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Measuring unemployment and labor-force participation

The underlying data from which the U.S. unemployment rate and labor-force participation rate are calculated contain numerous inconsistencies– if one of the numbers economists use is correct, another must be wrong. I’ve recently completed a research paper with Hie Joo Ahn that summarizes these inconsistencies and proposes a reconciliation.
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This entry was posted on March 29, 2019 by James_Hamilton.

UK Gross Fixed Capital Formation

Why I think the UK is in a world of hurt, regardless of where Brexit goes. It’s just a matter of how bad…

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This entry was posted on March 28, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

“Integration or Disintegration? The Future of Global Governance and the Global Economy”

That’s the title of the La Follette School Spring Symposium, taking place this Wednesday, 1-6PM at the Wisconsin Memorial Union, ending with:

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This entry was posted on March 28, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Assessing the Empirical Work of Stephen Moore

As noted earlier, Stephen Moore has a dearth of peer-reviewed publications; however, he has coauthored work purporting to be analytical. One of these is these is the Economic Outlook ranking published by the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC). In Rich States, Poor States, 2015:

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This entry was posted on March 27, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

“[I]t’s a big IF that soybeans futures are LONG TERM predictors at all.”

AKA CoRev Memorial Post. The quote is from CoRev, and motivated a July 15 post that contained this graph:


Figure 1: Soybean futures for July 2019. Source: ino.com.

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This entry was posted on March 27, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Stop Stephen Moore

From being appointed to the Fed. Here is a non-exhaustive recounting of Moore’s reign of error.

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP
  • Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
  • The Danger of Fed Credibility under Assault
  • WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”
  • EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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