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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

A Primer on Exchange Rate Misalignment (Updated)

As the administration pushes for “stability” in the Chinese exchange rate while imposing tariffs on China, it might be useful to recount the various ways in which different observers define currency “misalignment”. Here I update a primer first posted in 2010.

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This entry was posted on February 19, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Crazy Definitions of Equilibrium Exchange Rates

“The Coalition for a Prosperous America” releases what it burbles as a “Groundbreaking CPA Study…” entitled “Quantifying Economic Growth and Job Creation from a Competitive Dollar”. Don’t be fooled by all the footnotes and the numbers. At the basis of the analysis is the aphorism: “Neither a borrower nor a lender be”.

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This entry was posted on February 16, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Industrial and Manufacturing Production Decline: Whence the Business Cycle?

Interesting news even as we are flying partly blind (some government series are still lagging).

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This entry was posted on February 15, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Why Isn’t Stephen Moore Still Bragging about Coal As #1?

Recall from July 2017, when Stephen Moore wrote an article entitled “When It Comes To Electric Power, Coal Is No. 1” ?

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This entry was posted on February 14, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

The Mystery of the Miniscule Term Spread

The Federal budget has just had a big hole blown in it, thanks to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the last omnibus spending bill, the both the Fed and foreigners (including central banks) are no longer adding to their holdings of Treasurys.

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This entry was posted on February 13, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Scott Walker Lies (Yet Again)

About taxes and revenues and growth. He just can’t stop lying.

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This entry was posted on February 11, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Random Sunday Observation on the Compositional Attributes of the Econoblogosphere

The economics blogosphere, as listed in several lists of “top blogs” is remarkably monochromatic, and male.

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This entry was posted on February 10, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Scott Walker Tweets on Job Creation

From twitter:

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This entry was posted on February 9, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

What a Confidence Interval Is Not

Ever since I read the hysterically incorrect interpretation of a confidence interval from a person who purports to be a policy analyst, I’ve been looking for a succint explanation from a statistician, as a handy reference. Here it is (h/t David Giles via Mark Thoma):

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This entry was posted on February 9, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

“Go back to Puerto Rico”

“Republican Rep. Jason Smith yelled a potentially racially charged remark across the aisle as Democratic Rep. Tony Cárdenas was at the podium.” (Roll Call)

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This entry was posted on February 7, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • All Instantaneous Core Inflation Measures Rose in July
  • Guest Contribution: “Turning Medical Science Back to 1900”
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  • Business Cycle Indicators as of End-of-August

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 11.7 (describes  2025:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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