From AP:
…on Thursday during the World Economic Forum’s annual event in Davos, Switzerland, Trump said he would reduce oil prices, and then “I’ll demand that interest rates drop immediately, and likewise, they should be dropping all over the world.”
Macroeconomic Policy Lecture 1 – Graphs for 2025
Started teaching on Wednesday. Here’re some graphs in the intro lecture on macro policy (now that content is gated, and only accessible to students).
Will the MacIver Institute Issue a Retraction to “Evers’ Economy Is a Soviet Dream”
Why The MacIver Institute Should Be Charged with Data Abuse
In “The Evers Economy Is a Soviet Dream”, Michael Lucas writes:
Productivity, Demand and Manufacturing Employment
Is the decline in manufacturing employment due to trade competition? Insights from a decomposition.
Billion Dollar Disaster Cost to Year-to-Date (updated)
From NOAA to 2024, and guesstimate for January 2025:
Economic Data Sources: A Compendium [updated]
When a purported data analyst says something strange, who you gonna call?
“A Recession Is Coming: Yield Curve Indication”
That’s the title of a GJ Collins article on SeekingAlpha today — but it’s not what you think it means…
150 Years of Ten Year Treasury Yield, 100 Years of the 10yr-3mo Spread
Reader Steven Kopits opines on the CBO projection: “by historical standards [1982-2007], we might expect the 10 year rate around 5.0% for the next decade”. I thought it useful to look at the data:
The American People on the Incipient Tariffs
From a fascinating paper by Oli Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber, “The Upcoming Trump Tariffs: What Americans Expect and How They Are Responding“: