In my previous post, I recounted “The New Fama Puzzle” as it applied to dollar exchange rates, with focus on the euro/dollar rate. A quick observation: the reversal also appears for non-US dollar based exchange rates (against euro, yen, pound).
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With Bated Breath… Economic Report of the President, 2018
Fact-check please!
The Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance Post-Tax Cut/Spending Bill
Not good. From GS Sunday.
And nary a peep from purported conservative deficit hawks and/or Tea Party folk.
Interest Differentials and Exchange Rate Changes Before and After the Global Crisis
Before 2007M08
and After 2007M09
If the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and rational expectations –- sometimes termed the unbiasedness hypothesis — held, then the slope of the regression lines (in red) would be indistinguishable from unity. In fact, they are significantly different from that value. This pattern of coefficient reversal holds up for other dollar-based exchange rates, as well as for other currency pairs (with a couple exceptions). The fact that the coefficient is positive in the post-global financial crisis period is what we term “the New Fama puzzle”.
Trundling to Trade War
With a national security fig leaf?
Some Time Series Correlates of Mass Shooting Statistics
Figure 1: Mass shooting deaths (red), wounded (pink). February observation for data through 2/14. Light blue shading denotes assault weapon ban. Orange shading denotes implementation HJ Res 40. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations.
Shooting Statistical Delusions
Reader PeakTrader writes:
Mass shootings peaked when Bill Clinton assualted women in the ‘90s.
When such assertions are made, it is usually useful to refer to data. I do not see a peak in 1992-2000. I see a peak right now.
Figure 1: Mass shooting count. February observation for data through 2/14. Light green shading denotes Clinton administration. Orange shading denotes 2017 onward. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Mass shooting fatalities (red), and injured (pink). February observation for data through 2/14. Light green shading denotes Clinton administration. Orange shading denotes 2017 onward. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations.
Cumulative Mass Shooting Casualties as of 2/14/2018
Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning in 1982M08; deaths inflicted by non-Muslims (dark red), wounded inflicted by non-Muslims (pink), deaths inflicted by Muslims (dark blue), wounded inflicted by Muslims (light blue). February observation for data through 2/14. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations. Tabulations of religion of perpetrator by author.
Austerity, What’s It Good For?
With apologies to Seinfeld. It seems like a long time ago that conservatives argued for cutting taxes and cutting spending so as to spur expansion — but the Brownback and Walker experiments in Kansas and Wisconsin are in some sense just being completed now, some five years after Governor Brownback’s “shot of adrenaline” forecast.
Trump’s Trade Deficit
A progress report (the deficit is increasing, if you were wondering…)
Figure 1: Trade balance in billions of dollars, SAAR (blue), and 12 month moving average (red). Orange denotes Trump administration. Source: BEA/Census December trade release, and FRED.