Gotta Tell My Mom

[edited to quote current Mission Statement verbatim, per rtd‘s comment; new text in red, original text below in blue]

America under Mr. Trump is transmuted. US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) modifies its mission statement from:

“USCIS secures America’s promise as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system.” [emphasis added – mdc]

to:

“U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services administers the nation’s lawful immigration system, safeguarding its integrity and promise by efficiently and fairly adjudicating requests for immigration benefits while protecting Americans, securing the homeland, and honoring our values.”

[changed text 2/24 12PM Pacific – thanks to rtd for pointing out that “as a nation of immigrants” is not the only thing modified] Original text reads:

…to:

“USCIS secures America’s promise as a nation of immigrants by providing accurate and useful information to our customers, granting immigration and citizenship benefits, promoting an awareness and understanding of citizenship, and ensuring the integrity of our immigration system.”

The head of USCIS stated that this change was not at the direction of the White House.

Economic Report of the President, Table 8-2: Projected Productivity Illustrated

Jason Furman points us out to his favorite Table 8-2 in the Economic Report of the President, 2018, released yesterday, with particular reference to the productivity assumption.


Figure 1: Nonfarm real output per hour, 1947Q1=1 (blue), Trump Administration forecast of 2.6% (red), historical average (1953Q2-2017Q3) growth rate of 2% (pink). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS via FRED, NBER, CEA and author’s calculations.

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Interest Differentials and Exchange Rate Changes Before and After the Global Crisis

Before 2007M08

and After 2007M09

If the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) and rational expectations –- sometimes termed the unbiasedness hypothesis — held, then the slope of the regression lines (in red) would be indistinguishable from unity. In fact, they are significantly different from that value. This pattern of coefficient reversal holds up for other dollar-based exchange rates, as well as for other currency pairs (with a couple exceptions). The fact that the coefficient is positive in the post-global financial crisis period is what we term “the New Fama puzzle”.

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Shooting Statistical Delusions

Reader PeakTrader writes:

Mass shootings peaked when Bill Clinton assualted women in the ‘90s.

When such assertions are made, it is usually useful to refer to data. I do not see a peak in 1992-2000. I see a peak right now.


Figure 1: Mass shooting count. February observation for data through 2/14. Light green shading denotes Clinton administration. Orange shading denotes 2017 onward. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations.


Figure 2: Mass shooting fatalities (red), and injured (pink). February observation for data through 2/14. Light green shading denotes Clinton administration. Orange shading denotes 2017 onward. Source: Mother Jones, news accounts for 2/14, and author’s calculations.