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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Business Cycle Indicators: The Slowdown Cometh?

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Personal income, consumption both down in May, with today’s release. Industrial production, civilian employment in NFP concept down from previous releases. Monthly GDP from SPGMI and manufacturing and trade industry sales down in April…it’s reasonable to ask whether this is all signaling something.

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This entry was posted on June 27, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing Value Added Flat

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So much for a manufacturing renaissance, post-“Liberation Day”.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

“The International Monetary System, the PBoC and the RMB, Fragmentation & Decoupling, Fragmentation and Inflation”

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Those are some of the topic areas of this year’s NBER International Seminar in Macroeconomics, which took place in Split, Croatia.

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This entry was posted on June 26, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Bob McCauley: “Downgrading Uncle Sam, not America”

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In McCauley’s VoxEU post (first of three), he presents a pictorial depiction of exorbitant privilege:

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This entry was posted on June 25, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

GDP Nowcasts as of 6/20

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NY Fed, St. Louis Fed, GS tracking:

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This entry was posted on June 20, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Real Retail Sales – Business Cycle Indicators

With industrial production, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:

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This entry was posted on June 17, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

A Cost-Push Shock?

Oil prices jump:

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This entry was posted on June 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Tariffs and Consumer Prices at High Frequency

The recent undershooting of consensus CPI and PPI has been taken to mean that tariffs have not yet had an impact on prices (e.g., NYT). First, an interesting picture from Truflation:

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This entry was posted on June 15, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Slowdown? Business Cycle Indicator Data as of Mid-June

With SPGMI’s monthly GDP, we have the following picture of series the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee focuses on:

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This entry was posted on June 14, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

Has Trade Policy Uncertainty Decreased a Lot?

Yes, but only because it was so extremely high recently.

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This entry was posted on June 13, 2025 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Business Fixed Investment ex-IIP and Policy Uncertainty
  • Real Time Civilian Employment past Peak?
  • The Age of Angst? Macro Implications
  • Trade Policy Uncertainty before July 9
  • Manufacturing Employment, Hours Down

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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