Nowcasts for NY and St. Louis Feds out today; St. Louis up from 1.14% to 1.73% q/q AR. NY Fed, and GS tracking unchanged at 3.2%.
Nowcasts, Weekly Indicators, and Additions to the “Recession Camp”
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Why So Glum? Sentiment by Partisan Grouping
Michigan consumer sentiment declined, below consensus (68.9 vs 70.9). Why?
Contextualizing the Inflationary Impact of the 10%/60% Trump Tariff Plan
I was trying to think about how to contextualize the impact of the Trump 10%/60% tariffs on inflation. McKibbin-Hogan-Noland (2024) trace out the impact of this measure (as well as mass deportation) on inflation using an updated version of the G-Cubed model. In 2025, they estimate inflation will be 0.6 percentage points above baseline. Goldman-Sachs also come up with similar implied effects (although in their scenario, they only assume a portion of the tariffs are implemented)
Instantaneous Core Prices
Updated to include core PPI:
CPI and CPI Core Surprise on Upside
CPI m/m at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus [correction 7:15pm CT MDC] (Core 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus). Here are snapshots of instantaneous inflation rates for September headline, core, supercore, and services supercore CPI, headline and core PPI and HICP and headline and core PCE deflator for August.
Wisconsin Exports during Trump Trade War 1.0
A reminder:
Project 2025: So All Your Hurricane Projections Can Look Like This
Envisaging Milton under Trump 2.0:
GDPNow Up to 3.2% SAAR
GDPNow up from 2.5% on 10/1 to 3.2% on 10/8 (q/q AR), on the basis of auto sales and employment situation releases.
No Recession in 2022H1: Edition MMMXXVII
Reader Steven Kopits writes:
Two down quarters in 2021. Typical definition of a recession. I don’t believe I have declared a recession since.
EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation (Aug 5): “I would not be surprised if a recession is backdated to July or the current month”
From FoxNews. Here’s a picture of indicators followed by the NBER’s BCDC over the past year. Note that August numbers are mostly up.