Amicus Brief, and NTU Open Letter:
What Economists Are Against the IEEPA Tariffs? What Economists Are in Favor?
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The Strange Cases Wherein Trump Realizes Imports Lower Prices
Egg prices are down. In part because Trump allowed egg imports. Beef steaks and ground beef prices zoomed up; in order to reduce costs to consumers, Trump has quadrupled the Argentina import quota… Why not allow more tariff free imports of coffee? Of steel? Of Aluminum? Of garments?
“The Closing of the American Economy: Implications and Durability”
That’s the title of my presentation at the 2025 Minnesota Economic Association annual meeting, where I had the honor of speaking at the Leonid Hurwicz Lecture. It was a fantastic opportunity to share my thoughts and in responding to thoughtful questions, expand my views. The event took place at St. Catherine University yesterday.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Before the Latest Trump Tantrum (Reagan Quote Edition)
Apparently, in addition to halting trade negotiations with Canada, an additional 10% tariff is to be applied to imports from Canada. It’s unclear which imports will be tariffed (i.e., will USMCA-covered goods be affected?).
EJ Antoni: Pro-growth Supply Side Policies Will Support High Stock Prices
See this clip, at 2:17. Over the longer term, the stock prices should equal the present discounted value of dividends, themselves relective of earnings and profits. That’s basic finance. That being said, there are over time substantial (apparent) deviations from the PDV of dividends (see Shiller, AER 1981), or big moves in the price-earnings ratio, defined in any way you want (12 month trailing, cyclically-adjusted, 1 year forward), as earnings fail to materialize, or the equity risk premium seemingly changes.
CPI Release: Instantaneous Core CPI, Nowcasted Core PCE Up Relative to 2024M12
Grocery inflation slightly above September ERS forecast for 2025 y/y, furniture prices continue to (technically speaking) zoom up.
Imagine No IEEPA Tariffs
Betting is now 37% Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs.
Circumventing the Trump Administration’s Data Suppression: Billion $ Weather/Climate Disasters Efforts
As noted by CNN, the Trump administration’s deactivation of the website tracking climatic-related disasters has been partially alleviated by Climate Central‘s initiative.
What If? An Equity Market Correction Like 2001
In a recent Economist article, Gita Gopinath considered the implications of a AI bust similar in magnitude to the 2001 dotcom bust for the global economy.
The Fog of Uncertainty, Ag Edition
As American agriculture faces declining commodity prices amidst (tariff induced) rising input costs and heavy debt loads, here comes uncertainty, elevated by the Federal shutdown (from De Pillis, NYT):