That is the title of a post by Maury Obstfeld, Chief Economist at the IMF, on the occasion of the release of the April 2016 World Economic Outlook forecasts.
US Financial Openness under a President Trump
Mr. Trump has proposed blocking remittances of illegally earned wages to Mexico as a means of inducing Mexico to pay for a border wall. What does this imply for financial openness?
Guest Contribution: “The Bank of Japan Does Not Intervene in FX These Days”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
Why no economic boost from lower oil prices?
Many analysts had anticipated that a dramatic drop in oil prices such as we’ve seen since the summer of 2014 could provide a big stimulus to the economy of a net oil importer like the United States. That doesn’t seem to be what we’ve observed in the data.
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Data Baking?
Ironman of Political Calculations asserts that my use of Philadelphia Fed coincident indices is misleading, particularly in reference to Kansas’s performance is my attempt to overstate the poor performance of that state’s economy. He argues that one should use a comprehensive measure, like gross domestic product — so without further ado, let’s compare Kansas relative performance using both measures.
Revised Coincident Indices for the Midwest: Wisconsin at the Back of the Pack!
Again.
The Financial Regulatory Policies of Senator Sanders…Again
The ironies abound
Guest Contribution: “Stagnant incomes of white workers do not explain Trump”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
2016 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge winner
Congratulations to Jackiegee, winner of the 2016 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge. None of our entrants correctly picked the tournament winner to be Villanova, but Jackie (like a number of others of you) thought it would be UNC, and came within half a second of being right! For fans of Michigan State, West Virginia, and others, better luck next year!
Wisconsin’s Dependence on Exports
On the eve of the primary votes in Wisconsin, where protectionists are set to make some inroads, it’s of interest to consider the state’s reliance on exports — including those to China (a target of both Senator Sanders and Mr. Trump) and Mexico [1].