One conservative meme is that Wisconsin’s apparently poor economic performance relative to other Midwest states is due to an inappropriate choice of reference dates; for instance, a year ago, Political Calculations made the assertion in the title, based on a July 2013 reference date. The logic?
Guest Contribution: “Liquidity Trap and Excessive Leverage: How Excessive Debt Hurts the Economy and Why to Curb It”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Anton Korinek (Johns Hopkins Univ.) and Alp Simsek (MIT).
Far Left-Far Right Protectionist Dreams
As noted in this post, both Senator Sanders and Mr. Trump share a belief that China should be declared a currency manipulator, so that heavy tariffs can be imposed (Secretary Clinton’s position here). Not that it matters to either individuals’ beliefs, but — based on ongoing research I am conducting with Yin-Wong Cheung (CUHK) and Xin Nong (UW) — the evidence that China is currently manipulating its currency to keep it undervalued is not particularly persuasive.
2016 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
Sign up for the world famous ninth annual Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge, in which Econbrowsers are invited to demonstrate their inability to predict the outcome of the U.S. college mens’ basketball tournament. It’s almost as much glory as winning Warren Buffett’s competing pool, but don’t worry, you can enter both! If you want to participate, go to the Econbrowser group at ESPN, do some minor registering to create a free ESPN account if you haven’t used that site before, and fill in your bracket before Thursday at noon.
Guest Contribution: “Capital Control Measures: A New Dataset”
Today we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Andrés Fernández (IDB), Michael W. Klein (Tufts), Alessandro Rebucci (Johns Hopkins Univ.), Martin Schindler (IMF and JVI) and Martín Uribe (Columbia Univ.). This post is based upon this paper. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this article are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the InterAmerican Development Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Joint Vienna Institute, their Executive Directors, or the countries they represent.
Benchmarked Wisconsin Private Nonfarm Payroll Declines
While the BLS state level data will come out on Monday (see discussion here), the individual states release slightly earlier. Wisconsin released employment data today.
The Wisconsin Employment Boom Will Be Revised Away
Not so certain the slowdown will be similarly erased.
China: The Trilemma and Reserves, Again
From Bloomberg:
The yuan strengthened after China’s central bank raised its fixing for a fourth day and data showed a less-than-estimated drop in the nation’s foreign-exchange reserves.
Senator Sanders and Financial Regulation
Today I was reminded that Senator Sanders voted against TARP. That made me conclude that Senator Sanders’ position on financial regulation is truly unique.
[graphic update 3/8 10:15 pm Pacific]
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Spreads and Recession Watch, March 2016
Five Thirty Eight warns us to prepare for a (not likely imminent) recession; Wall Street Journal‘s Real Time Economics cautions “All Clear on Recession Risk? Not Yet”, even if the latest employment indicate continued growth. Time to review market indicators of the outlook.