The American Community Survey data for 2014 are out (h/t Samuel). Real household family income in Wisconsin continues to decline relative to that in Minnesota.
Wisconsin Employment Exceeds March 2008 Levels
In an op-ed published yesterday, entitled “Wisconsin is working and growing jobs”, Governor Walker wrote:
More people are working in Wisconsin today than at just about any other time in our history.
This is correct. According to BLS statistics, in October Wisconsin civilian employment rose above March 2008 levels. They are still 13,855 below levels recorded in February of this year. This is why the Governor had to include the proviso “just about any other time”.
Figure 1: Wisconsin civilian employment, seasonally adjusted (blue), 2008M03 peak value (red horizontal line). Source: BLS.
As noted by Justin Wolfers, household surveys based estimates at the state level are subject to high levels of uncertainty. This doesn’t stop some people from citing state-level unemployment rates almost to the point of excluding other estimates. But it should — or at least make people a little reticent about unemployment-rate based boosterism, as we have heard from certain quarters.
For discussion of the trends in the establishment series, see here. To see how far Wisconsin nonfarm payroll employment has lagged what should have been expected given historical correlations, see this post (hint: Wisconsin lags, and statistically significantly so).
This lackluster performance is likely why “…57 percent of voters said that they think Wisconsin is lagging other states in job creation”, according to a Marquette University Law School poll (WPR).
Guest Contribution: “Should Congress ReFORM Fed Transparency?”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Associate Professor of Economics at Lehigh University, David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, respectively Professor and Clinical Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Houston.
Some Public Policy Would be Useful
More so than some mere words.
Satellite Data on Temperatures
Why one shouldn’t obsess on just one data set. Read on only if you don’t believe in a conspiracy so vast…
The RMB in the SDR: What Does It Mean for RMB Internationalization?
The IMF staff has now determined the Renminbi should be included in the IMF’s unit of account, the Special Drawing Right (SDR). Reviews of the decision are covered here and here. But as the articles note, there is a long ways to go before the RMB is internationalized so as to rival the dollar or euro.
A Year for Records: Temperatures, Acres Burned
Read on, only if you believe in considering data.
Commodity prices and exchange rates
The dramatic decline in the prices of a number of commodities over the last 16 months must have a common factor. One variable that seems to be quite important is the exchange rate.
Continue reading
Guest Contribution: “Games Countries Play”
Today we have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of a column that appeared in Project Syndicate.
Links: Housing Bubbles, Trilemma, Policy Timing Uncertainty
Food for thought over the long weekend.