Today, we present a guest post written by David Papell, Professor of Economics at the University of Houston, Sebin Nidhiri and Swati Singh, Ph.D. students at the University of Houston.
NABE 2025 Growth Outlook Downgraded from 1.9% (April) to 1.3% (May)
From NABE today:
EJ Antoni Redefines Recession as What the American People Feel
See 0:35 in this FoxBusiness snippet in which he admits that by the 2-quarter rule-of-thumb we might end up being in a recession, but opines that what Americans “feel” is a better definition.
Downgrades and CDS
Bessent says Moody’s downgrade is a lagging indicator…
Thoughts on Soft vs. Hard Data
Reader Bruce Hall decries focus on “soft data” (read: it’s all the media’s fault!)
Republicans’ Economic Outlook Darken
Preliminary results indicate that this development precedes “Liberation Day”:
GDP on a Lower Trajectory – Survey of Professional Forecasters
Michigan Survey Implies a Catastrophic Collapse of Fed Inflation Credibility
NY Fed survey doesn’t [corrected per Gorodnichenko- median NY Fed does not, but mean would]
Economic Sentiment Continues to Fall as Inflation Expectations Climb Further
Sentiment (prelminary) below consensus.
Graphs from “Changes in International Economics: Do We Need to Alter Our Approach?”
New conditions, not new approaches. From my presentation (PDF) yesterday for MCFR: