World oil production stagnated between 2005 and 2007, which given rapid growth in demand from emerging economies sent oil prices shooting up. Some observers suggested that production might never rise much above the levels seen in 2005. Among those who raised this possibility, two of the more thoughtful have changed their mind. Euan Mearns last month summarized what he saw as three (or four) nails in the coffin of peak oil. And Stuart Staniford, an early editor and contributor for the Oil Drum, declared a few weeks ago that the data have spoken.
Risk Appetite, Interest Rate Parity, Integration, Crises, Currency Wars, and theTrilemma
These are the topics covered in West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, October 11th, organized by Michael Hutchison (UCSC) and Helen Popper (SCU).
CNY on the Rise
The preliminary results from the BIS triennial survey for 2013 are out. There are a lot of interesting results, but one I want to flag is that the Chinese yuan is increasingly used in forex transactions.
Economists supporting Janet Yellen
Econbrowser readers know that I feel that Janet Yellen would be an excellent choice for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. For those of you who feel the same way, I call your attention to an open letter of support from economists that you could sign.
If you are a professional economist who lives and/or works in the United States and you would like to join in signing this open letter, please send your name, title, and affiliation to YellenLetter@iwpr.org.
Observations on the Labor Market
One of these is not like the others – local government employment stabilizes, but state does not – structural unemployment decreases – Obamacare does not cause the rise in part time employment
Syria and the world oil market
A Tale of Two Fiscal Policies, Continued
In a previous post, I compared economic outcomes in two states that implemented contrasting fiscal policies: California, which surged ahead while raising taxes and cutting spending, and Wisconsin, which lagged far behind as it slashed spending on education, and cut taxes. Latest estimates of current economic activity, and forecasted economic activity six months out, indicate continued lagging performance for Wisconsin.
Quantitative and Credit Easing vs. Forward Guidance
Domestic Impacts and Cross-Border Impacts Contrasted
Why Do Economists Blog (Policy Edition) (II)?
Six years ago, I asked this question, and noted that it was primarily economists who had served a stint in government. Still, it was a pretty rarified group; now it’s less so.
Coping with high oil prices
We’ve been seeing oil over $100 a barrel and gasoline above $3.40 a gallon for much of the last 3 years. Those prices would have shocked many Americans a few years ago, but have now become the new normal. What has changed and what hasn’t as a result?