I find it strange that self-avowed patriotic Americans are willing to shut down the government, breach the debt ceiling, and throw the world economy into tumult, when those same self-avowed patriots have been asserting that policy uncertainty has slowed down the economy. Let’s stipulate for the sake of argument policy uncertainty has been an important determinant of slow growth [0]; when do we see the spikes in policy uncertainty?
Some Selected State and National Employment Indicators
The BLS released today estimates for August state employment. In Figure 1 below, I show US, Wisconsin, Minnesota and California private nonfarm payroll employment figures, normalized to January 2011, when the governors of the three states took office.
GDP Growth and the Change in the Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance
Countries that increase the structural budget balance the most have experienced the slowest growth. Here is the scatter plot for the 2008-2012 period.
Lehman Plus Five
US, Euro area, and UK GDP Trajectories Compared, and the Expansionary Fiscal Contraction Hypothesis
Summers withdraws
Harvard Professor Larry Summers yesterday requested that his name be withdrawn from consideration for next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Let me outsource to a few others for comments.
The peak in world oil production is yet to come
World oil production stagnated between 2005 and 2007, which given rapid growth in demand from emerging economies sent oil prices shooting up. Some observers suggested that production might never rise much above the levels seen in 2005. Among those who raised this possibility, two of the more thoughtful have changed their mind. Euan Mearns last month summarized what he saw as three (or four) nails in the coffin of peak oil. And Stuart Staniford, an early editor and contributor for the Oil Drum, declared a few weeks ago that the data have spoken.
Risk Appetite, Interest Rate Parity, Integration, Crises, Currency Wars, and theTrilemma
These are the topics covered in West Coast Workshop on International Finance and Open Economy Macroeconomics, October 11th, organized by Michael Hutchison (UCSC) and Helen Popper (SCU).
CNY on the Rise
The preliminary results from the BIS triennial survey for 2013 are out. There are a lot of interesting results, but one I want to flag is that the Chinese yuan is increasingly used in forex transactions.
Economists supporting Janet Yellen
Econbrowser readers know that I feel that Janet Yellen would be an excellent choice for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. For those of you who feel the same way, I call your attention to an open letter of support from economists that you could sign.
If you are a professional economist who lives and/or works in the United States and you would like to join in signing this open letter, please send your name, title, and affiliation to YellenLetter@iwpr.org.
Observations on the Labor Market
One of these is not like the others – local government employment stabilizes, but state does not – structural unemployment decreases – Obamacare does not cause the rise in part time employment