From Reuters:
The country’s gross domestic product fell 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, sharper than a 0.1 percent decline forecast by analysts.
Links for 2013-01-23
Quick links to a few items I found of interest.
The Macroeconomic Task Ahead
A long-run perspective on the U.S. deficit and debt
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis economist Daniel Thornton has a new paper looking at long-run factors in the U.S. deficit and debt. His graphs tell a familiar story, but one worth repeating.
Guest Contribution: “Debt Ceilings, Bombs, Cliffs and the Trillion Dollar Coin”
Today, we’re very fortunate to have as a guest contributor Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. His weblog can be found here.
Debt-ceiling economics and politics
Let me outsource this topic to some others who’ve said it better than I could.
Great Moments in Policy Analysis: Heritage on the Debt Ceiling
From the Heritage Foundation, today:
Very simply, reaching the debt limit means spending is limited by revenue arriving at the Treasury and is guided by prioritization among the government’s obligations. How the government would decide to meet these obligations under the circumstances is a matter of some conjecture. Certainly, vast inflows of federal tax receipts—inflows that far exceed amounts needed to pay monthly interest costs on debt—would continue. Thus, the government would never be forced to default on its debt because of a lack of income. [emphasis added – MDC]
How to Induce Explosive Debt Dynamics
The debt ceiling and implications of:
”We Republicans need to be willing to tolerate a temporary, partial government shutdown.”
and more recently
The near-term U.S. fiscal situation
Here I briefly survey some recent developments.
Guest Contribution: “Rewriting UK GDP history the chain-linked way”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution by Sam Williamson, Research Professor at University of Illinois, Chicago, and President of Measuring Worth.