I recently did an interview with OilPrice.com on a range of issues related to oil prices. Here are some excerpts.
Expectations, Uncovered Interest Parity, and the Zero Interest Bound: New Results
One of the most robust findings in international finance is that interest differentials do not point in the right direction for subsequent exchange rate changes. This means that dollar returns on say one year certificates of deposit in the US and in the UK are not on average equalized. In Chinn and Meredith (2004), we show that this anomaly — if it is one — disappears as one goes to longer horizons. This finding was discussed previously here.
U.S. monetary policy since the financial crisis
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York announced on Thursday that it had sold the last remaining securities from its Maiden Lane III portfolio, successfully closing the chapter on its assistance to insurance giant AIG. I thought this would be a good occasion to review the various measures that the Fed implemented over the last 5 years– what they were attended to accomplish, what they did accomplish, and the significance of Thursday’s announcement.
A Debate in Foreign Affairs: Stimulus or Reform
From an exchange in the September/October issue of Foreign Affairs, with Raghuram Rajan, Karl Smith and myself. I write in my comment:
Federal receipts and expenditures
I was interested to take a look at the trends in receipts and expenditures of the U.S. federal government over the last 40 years.
Guest Contribution: “Sticky Prices, Store-Switching, and Effective Price Flexibility”
Today, we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Olivier Coibion (UT Austin), Yuriy Gorodnichenko (UC Berkeley), and Gee Hee Hong (Bank of Canada); it is based on The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications.
The Ryan Plan and bipartisan compromise
I have a dream.
Romney Campaign on the Tax Policy Center study: “Objective, Third-Party Analysis”
Or, he was for the Tax Policy Center before he was against the Tax Policy Center, and how to assess think tank research.
Recent developments in oil markets
The price of Brent crude oil fell $35/barrel between April and June. But increases this summer have taken about $25 of that back.
Central Bank Balance Sheets and Inflation
Given several prominent policymakers have worried about central bank actions leading to high inflation, (e.g. Representative Ryan) it seems reasonable to see how expansions in central bank balance sheets correlate with inflation.