No apparent recession as of August 2024 data (my interpretation – see the opposing views here). Using year-ago financial data, what would have probit regressions have indicated? It matters which variables you use, and whether you include the 2020 recession.
Guest Contribution: “As Predicted by Motio Estimates, Real Median Household Income Rose in 2023 for the First Time Since 2019”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria, co-founders of the data science and economic consulting firm Motio Research.
Why Do Prediction Markets Differ in Pricing the Election?
RealClearPolitics betting average, today, has Harris-Trump 52.3 to 46.3.
Bull Steepening since FOMC Meeting
Here’s the cumulative change since 6/3/2024:
“Newly released data from the Commerce Department show what some people have been saying for months: The nation is in recession.”
That’s EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation, writing in September 2022. A cautionary note on declaring recessions.
Nowcasts Rising
Here’s a snapshot of nowcasts and forecasts as of today:
State Employment Report for August
Unemployment rises in many states, but so does employment (NFP) growth (report).
Nowcasting Wisconsin NFP Employment
Can we use national employment to nowcast Wisconsin employment? This endeavor is somewhat complicated by the pandemic. With DWD’s release today, we can evaluate the fit of the model.
Is Manufacturing In Recession?
As of August, incorporating latest capacity utilization and production data, I’m tempted to say no, even incorporating at face value the preliminary benchmark revision to employment.
Where Will Mortgage Rates Go?
Ad hoc time series analysis.