Here are key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (top indicators employment and person income) plus monthly GDP from S&P (nee Macroeconomic Advisers nee IHS Markit):
Ruble Devaluation Giveth and Devaluation Taketh Away
Consider the ruble/yuan exchange rate.
Wages Nominal and Real across the Distribution
Reader Michael writes:
…high income wage growth has grown much faster than medium and low income wage growth patterns.
Policy Uncertainty since the Election
As measured by Baker, Bloom and Davis:
How Much Has the Price Level Risen for Consumers? Seven Measures
The conventionally used CPI-U is in the middle of the pack.
Did Wisconsin Manufacturing Thrive during Trump Trade War 1.0?
A retrospective:
Central Bank of Russia Telegram Account: “Everything will be fine.”
I’m taking the WSJ’s word for it, from the article “Russia’s War Economy Shows New Cracks After the Ruble Plunges”.
Three Measures of Output
GDP, GDO, GDP+:
Average Wages (Still) Rising Faster than Inflation
A comparison between CPI, chained CPI, PCE price index, and HICP deflation:
All That Is Old Is New Again: Protection for Automobiles and Light Trucks
Forty years ago, I was working for Bob Crandall as an RA at Brookings, on how much the voluntary export restraints (VERs) added to the costs of a typical Japanese imported car. He found that number to be about $820 (a Datsun Stanza was about $6700 in 1981), and a comparable domestically produced car by about $370 (since the VER puts up a wall that allows domestic producers to raise prices). Today, according to Wells Fargo, the 25% tariffs would result in a vehicle assembled in Mexico or Canada to go up in price by $8000-$10000, while the average over all cars using imported parts will go up about $2100 (average car price in March 2024 is about $47000; a Ford F150 STX is about $42000).