If a collapse in aggregate demand is not at fault, then was an aggregate supply shift? A quick-and-dirty evaluation using some back-of-the-envelope calculations
The Ruble under Stress
Updated 3/4 5PM
Here are some immediate consequences of Russia’s intervention in the Ukraine. From Reuters:
A bull’s-eye for Fed accountability
I was in New York on Friday attending the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum. One of the sessions was on how central banks could better communicate their plans for using unconventional monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans presented some very interesting ideas.
Birthers, (Stimulus) Deniers, and Economic Myths
OK, nothing about birthers, but some comments on truths held deeply, but unjustifiably, by certain types of people.
Guest Contribution: “The Obama Stimulus and the 5-Year Anniversary of Market Turnaround”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. He is currently a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Guest Contribution: “Are Chinese Capital controls still binding and if so, to what end?”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Yin-Wong Cheung, Professor of International Economics at City University Hong Kong, formerly professor at UCSC, and Risto Herrala, economist at the Bank of Finland.
Use of logarithms in economics
Why do economists always want to take the natural logarithm of everything? Here’s the answer,if you don’t mind looking at a few equations and graphs.
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Ex Post Historical Simulation of a Statistical Model of Anthropogenic Climate Change
…we update the [original statistical model (7)] by estimating it with data through 1998. The selected sample ends just before the recent period of slowed warming. As such, the parameter estimates do not use information about the post-1998 period. Model simulations reflect these pre-1998 parameters and post-1998 observed levels of radiative forcings, SOI, and volcanic sulphates.
Fed Policy and Emerging Market Economy Vulnerabilities
The recent weakness in emerging market currencies, and implementation of the taper, are sure to be topics of discussion at the G-20 meetings in Australia. While the imminent retrenchment in quantitative/credit easing is responsible for some of the currency movements of late, I’m not sure this is the only way to look at recent events; nor do I think we need see a replay of previous episodes of currency crises in response to US monetary tightening.
A Random Thought on the Scientific Method
In response to this post, climate model skeptic Rick Stryker writes (in ALL CAPS no less):
JUST BECAUSE A MODEL DESCRIBES THE EXISTING DATA DOESN’T MEAN THAT IT WILL DESCRIBE DATA THAT HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED