The CBO has just released new estimates of the cyclically adjusted, or structural, budget balance (link here). They’ve also given the series a new name, and some new tweaks. First, observation — the cyclically adjusted deficit is substantially smaller than the actual in 09Q4.
It’s not just Europe
I see many financial commentators bravely trying to explain recent ups and downs in asset and commodity prices in terms of news coming out of Europe. But a Eurocentric perspective misses an important part of the story.
The FRTG Estimate Clarified
The TFRG range of oil spill flow reported yesterday was the lower bound. From PBS Newshour, regarding the 12,000-19,000 barrel per day estimate:
…at least two experts on the panel say that those numbers actually represent what they consider the lower boundary range of the possible amount of oil.
WWRPA at the Hearings of SUAC?
Or, “What would Rand Paul Ask at the Hearings of the Senate Un-American Activities Committee?”. From AP:
“What I don’t like from the president’s administration is this sort of, ‘I’ll put my boot heel on the throat of BP,'” Paul said in an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “I think that sounds really un-American in his criticism of business.”
The (Macro) World at Your Fingertips
Or, at least the G-20 at your fingertips.
Eswar Prasad (Cornell and Brookings) and Karim Foda have put together a new website, “TIGER: Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery”.
In collaboration with the Financial Times (FT), Eswar Prasad and Karim Foda of Brookings have developed a set of composite indexes which track the global economic recovery. The Financial Times has produced the Tracking Indexes for the Global Economic Recovery (TIGER) interactive map, which appears on the FT Web site.
Tales from the BEA’s GDP by Industry Release: The Private Economy and Rebalancing
The BEA today released value added and output series by industry through 2009. A few highlights: (1) the share of the private sector value added in total GDP has declined by 1.34 percentage points since 2000; (2) manufacturing’s share of GDP continues to decline in nominal terms; and (3) the share of finance and insurance barely rose in 2009.
Calling recessions in real time
My latest research paper reviews efforts to supplement the declarations by the National Bureau of Economic Research as to the beginning and ending of economic recessions with determinations made by purely mechanical algorithms.
What Does a Euro Depreciation Mean for the US?
The euro has been depreciating against the dollar over the past few weeks. The implications of this development for the US depend critically on (1) the extent of the depreciation, (2) the duration, and (3) the source of the depreciation. (See Jim’s post for other links.)
San Diego economy outlook
The San Diego Daily Transcript invited me to join a group of economists in discussing prospects for the local economy. You can watch the discussion in a series of videos:
Europe and the world economy
Since mid-April, the euro has depreciated 10% against the U.S. dollar and European stocks have lost 17% of their value. But markets aren’t acting as though the problems will be confined to Europe.