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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings

Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2021 period. This dataset was used in Ito and McCauley (2020), Chinn, Ito and McCauley (2022), and Chinn, Ito and Frankel (2024).

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Goldman Sachs on the Post-Election Economy

From  Alec Phillips, David Mericle and Tim Krupa (Goldman Sachs, 3 September 2024):

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators and the Employment Release

Employment growth is slowing. Even taking the preliminary benchmark at face value, we’re not in recession as of mid-August (when the survey is taken).

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Employment Slowdown in Context

NFP +142 vs. consensus +166. Employment has almost surely slowed (keeping in mind this is the preliminary release). What does this look like?

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This entry was posted on September 6, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

A Puzzle: Private NFP and the Preliminary Benchmark vs. Current Official [updated]

The puzzle remains: despite an under-consensus 99K addition to private ADP-Stanford NFP (far below consensus 144K). ADP cumulative change above CES cumulative change, while preliminary benchmark is below.

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This entry was posted on September 5, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Peter Schiff on Recession

Peter Schiff today:

This morning has seen a trifecta of weak economic data. Aug. PMI & ISM manufacturing both came out even weaker than expected, while July construction spending unexpectedly fell. It’s becoming clear the #economy is entering a #recession just as #inflation is poised to turn higher.  

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

Business Cycle Indicators as of September’s Start

Including monthly GDP out today from S&P Global Market Insights, and preliminary benchmark NFP:

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This entry was posted on September 3, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

EJ Antoni/Heritage Foundation: “some suspect government statisticians are committing lies of omission.”

And could it be that Ancient Aliens helped build the Pyramids? Sure!

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This entry was posted on September 1, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

For Labor Day 2024: Four Graphs from “The State of Working Wisconsin, 2024”

On this blog, I intermittently post on Wisconsin macro aggregates. For micro assessments of Wisconsin’s labor markets and household welfare, I turn to High Road Strategy Center’s reports. From the 2024 report, here are four key graphs.

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This entry was posted on September 1, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

It’s Almost as If Some People Were Rooting for Recession

EJ Antoni (Heritage) is dubious about GDPNow’s (and other nowcasts) regarding Q3 growth. From X aka Twitter today:

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This entry was posted on August 31, 2024 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

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  • Gold and FX Reserves in 2025Q1
  • Core Inflation Nowcasted to Rise in June, July

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since Apr 30,2025)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 6.8 (describes  2024:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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