Nonresidential investment has been increasing until 2008Q1, at which time it essentially stalled (-0.2 ppts. annualized in log terms). On the basis of past historical correlations, what’s in store?
Saudi oil production plans
A potentially huge story from the New York Times.
A Closer Look at the Impact of Higher Gasoline Prices
There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the effects of high gasoline prices on the quantity demanded of gasoline, as well driving behavior (Jim Hamilton, Jim Hamilton, CR, CR, Paul Krugman). David Austin, whose work I have cited often on this blog, gave a fascinating presentation, entitled “Effects of Gasoline Prices on Driving Behavior and Vehicle Choice” at the recent Society of Government Economists conference in Washington, DC a couple of weeks ago. In it, he tackles some of these issues. (Note, these are his own personal views and do not necessarily represent the views of any specific organization.)
A bit of sunshine
Consumers say they’re gloomy, but why are they still spending?
Housing and the oil shock
The housing downturn and rising gasoline prices are each exerting a significant contractionary influence on U.S. GDP. There is also an interactive effect between the two.
Recession versus Negative Output Gap
Over the past few days, I’ve been trying to identify appropriate measures of the output gap (and trying to relate that to exchange rate changes). As I’ve done so, I’ve come to realize that (1) it’s a difficult thing to do, and (2) interesting stories come out of different measures.
Trends in Key Recession Indicators
Since December 2007 is a commonly identified turning point [1], [2], I thought it would be of interest (given Jim’s take on whether it matters if we’re in a recession) to see what the indicators that the NBER BCDC focus on — payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income less transfers, real manufacturing and trade sales, and to a lesser extent monthly real GDP — are doing. They’re declining…
Oil spike
Why did oil breach $138?
Is this a recession and do we care?
Could well be, and yes you should.
Oil Prices in Other Currencies
Some of the explanations for the dollar jump rely upon the perceived weakness in the dollar’s value (and hence, by extension, Fed policy). Does this make sense?