From a February 1st post:
Recession Indicator Sit-Rep
NBER BCDC key indicators, alternative indicators, weekly indicators:
Weekly Business Cycle Indicators – Data through 7/27
Bitcoin as Store of Value
Bitcoin vs. VIX:
Fed Funds Path as of Noon ET
From CME:
Who Better Predicted the Transitory Inflation Surge of 2021-24?
Consumers, CEO’s, or economists?
Three Episodes of the Sahm Rule Triggered
Recent vs. 2008 and 2001 recessions.
An Eventful Week – Interest Rates
10 year Treasury yields are down 40 bps over the week.
Business Cycle Indicators, with Employment, Monthly GDP
Here’s a picture of some key indicators followed by the NBER BCDC, along with monthly GDP:
Employment: Different Measures
NFP comes under, 114K vs. 176K consensus. Private NFP also missed, +97K vs. +148K consensus.